7:25AM April 21, 2018

SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY… A few strong thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday as an area of low pressure moves by. SPC has included our local area in a Level 1 “marginal” risk of severe weather in their convective outlook, meaning isolated severe storms will be possible. Today (Saturday) will be a transition day from the nice, sunny weather we’ve had over the last few days to a more active, wet Sunday. Here are your Saturday morning weather headlines…
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… Clouds will be on the increase across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. Most of us across the region will be dry through 5PM. The chance of rain showers happening across our area rises to near 40% in the evening hours. Most of the shower activity will happen in west Alabama (Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Monroe counties) through 9PM. Rain chances will rise across the region overnight into Sunday morning.
STORMS ON SUNDAY… The image attached shows the convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The entirety of our local area is now included in a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk area, meaning isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. The overall tornado threat is low, as is the threat of hail and damaging straight line winds. This will likely be a situation where we have numerous showers and thunderstorms around on Sunday, but little in the way of severe weather. Regardless, you’ll need to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings on Sunday. Please remember that tornadoes can and do happen on Level 1 risk days. Yes, it’s a low-end risk, but “low” does not mean “zero” chance.
RAIN TIMING ON SUNDAY… Now that we’ve talked about the overall severe weather risk, let’s talk about timing… The chance of rain rises throughout the morning hours and into the afternoon. Scattered showers will likely be around on Sunday morning, increasing in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours. Sunday evening between 3PM and 8PM looks particularly wet, based on the latest model scenarios. Rain will clear out late Sunday into the very early morning hours of Monday.
MILD NEXT WEEK… The week ahead could feature several days of isolated rain showers around. Temperatures look to be a bit below where we should be for this time of year, with highs peaking in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s. At this point, I’m not seeing anything on the medium-term models (beyond Sunday) that would suggest a significant severe weather event. This is primary severe weather season in the Deep South, however! I’ll be monitoring trends closely.
If we happen to have tornado warnings on Sunday, be sure to join me across our platforms. I’ll provide live streaming coverage, per our usual policy.
Have a great Saturday! Let me know if you have specific questions.
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