7:18AM May 14, 2018

P.M. STORMS TODAY; EYES ON THE GULF… An area of low pressure continues to move northward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates that this system has a 30-40% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm in the next 48 hours before it moves onshore along the central Florida Panhandle. Here’s the deal… Regardless of if this system develops into a named storm, our local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains the same: Increased rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Potentially deadly rip currents will become more likely at area beaches. Other than those two things, you’ll barely notice any significant effects. Right now, the center of the low is just west of Ft. Myers and Sarasota, Florida. Much of the convection (rain/storms) have been displaced to the east of the center of the storm, which is why places like Miami, Tampa, and Orlando have had quite a bit of rain over the last two days!

FURTHER UPDATES TODAY… I’ll have updates on this tropical/subtropical feature today and this week HERE in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to set up your customized alerts experience if you haven’t already by tapping on the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tapping that large, yellow Alert Settings button.

HOT MONDAY… While temperatures have been quite warm over the last few days, today will really feel like summer – in that we have a 20-30% chance of pop-up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the low-90s.

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY… Rain chances will spike even higher on Tuesday as the upper-level low pressure (and accompanying surface low)moves toward our area from the Gulf of Mexico. I expect rain chances to be highest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of the showers and storms may linger into the evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday, but most will fade as we lose daytime heating.

P.M. STORMS FOR END OF WEEK… Looking ahead, Thursday through Saturday will be warm, with high temperatures near 90°. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms around, especially in the middle of the afternoon/early evening hours, but we won’t have an “all day washout” event most likely. That same pattern will hold true into the upcoming weekend as well.

NO HURRICANE AHEAD, FOR NOW… If you missed my video post on Sunday, I would strongly encourage you to check it out. Numerous posts have been flying around social media lately about the potential for a late May tropical storm/hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. NOTE: This is a separate, totally distinct deal from the system previously mentioned that will bring rain to Alabama, Florida, and Georgia over the next few days. Anything past the seven day mark in model data is not a reliable indicator for our forecasts. See more here: https://www.facebook.com/rzweather/videos/987150221443317/

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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