1:01PM May 20, 2018

NUMEROUS P.M. STORMS; TROPICAL UPDATE… Showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous across south Alabama and northwest Florida compared to Friday and Saturday, as a moisture axis is now in place across our region. I expect many thunderstorms to be in progress between 2-5PM. We also continue to observe a substantial model spread concerning an area of low pressure that will move north from the Caribbean Sea later this week. Let’s talk details…

SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY & MONDAY… If you’re going to be outside this afternoon or on Monday afternoon, beware that there will be an enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms across our region. The storms will produce lots of cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy downpours of rain, small hail, and gusty winds. I wouldn’t be shocked if a few of the storms were on the strong side, producing some wind gusts that have the capability of knocking down unhealthy tree limbs, etc. Widespread severe weather is not expected, and the tornado risk today remains near zero, as is typical for our summertime pattern around here.

TROPICAL LOW UNCERTAINTY… We mentioned Friday night that a tropical area of low pressure will likely develop in the western Caribbean Sea later this week. This tropical low will move northward later this week and likely end up in the southern Gulf. There is substantial model disagreement about where this system will end up. The Global Forecast System keeps the system quite weak, and moves it across the Florida Peninsula (Miami, Everglades) out into the Atlantic. We note the ECMWF has a weak tropical area of low pressure developing later this week closer to our local area. Regardless of which solution pans out, I am NOT expecting a significant tropical/hurricane event. All model guidance points to this being a weak tropical storm at maximum, as of now. No need to panic or worry.

VACATION/CRUISE PLANS… Several questions even this morning about folks’ respective cruise/vacation plans for the upcoming week. I can’t give specific advice on this since everyone’s tolerance for wind/rain out in the Gulf is different, but I will say… If I had a cruise/vacation planned for the beach/Gulf this week, I would keep my plans intact as of now. We simply do not have enough guidance yet to suggest any changes.

STORMS THIS WEEK… Afternoon and evening storms will dominate our weather pattern over the next seven days, as is typical for an early summer weather pattern across our region. High temperatures will consistently be near 90° with morning lows in the upper-60s.

Let me know if you have specific questions. We’ll have plenty of updates today here in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great day!

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