3:18PM May 23, 2018


MAJOR FLOODING EVENT AHEAD… Our local National Weather Service office has issued a rare “extreme” risk of flooding and flash flooding for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. The latest guidance points to 6-12″ of rain for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida with isolated higher amounts. This will likely happen, regardless of if the tropical system developing in the Caribbean and southern Gulf becomes a tropical storm this weekend. Let’s look at a few specifics now. I’ll have a more comprehensive update later this evening.

GREATEST RISK NEAR THE COAST… If you’re in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, or Walton counties, you have the greatest risk of seeing extreme rain amounts this weekend that could lead to potentially major flooding/flash flooding. Memorial Day weekend at local beaches looks to be QUITE wet. We also note that there will be a HIGH risk of rip currents at all area beaches starting on Friday. I wouldn’t be shocked if some local beaches changed to “double red flag” conditions, shutting down access to the Gulf.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK INLAND, TOO… Even inland counties (Washington, Choctaw, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), and Covington) have a significant chance of seeing potentially major flooding at times, with rain amounts likely to be in the 5-8″ total range this weekend.

TROPICAL UPDATE… The National Hurricane Center now gives the area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico in the next 72 hours. Again, regardless of if this happens or not, potentially major rain amounts are ahead for our local area as the “moisture hose” from the south/tropics ushers in extreme moisture, leading to near constant rain this weekend.

The graphic attached is courtesy of our friends and partners at our local weather service office in Mobile. We thank them for their service and their daily work!

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