9:24PM May 24, 2018

MAJOR RAINFALL AHEAD DUE TO LIKELY TROPICAL STORM… There is now a 90% chance we’ll be dealing with a tropical storm crossing the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Even if we don’t have ‘formal development’ into a named storm, this will likely be a high impact flash flooding/heavy rain/flooding event for south Alabama and northwest Florida this weekend extending into next week.

90% CHANCE OF “ALBERTO”… Confidence is much higher this evening in the potential track and local impacts of what likely will be Tropical Storm Alberto in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90 percent chance that the area of low pressure currently situated near the Yucatan Peninsula will become a tropical storm as it moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Regardless of where the center of circulation tracks AND regardless of if this system actually becomes a named storm, there will be a substantial flood threat for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

A few summary points this evening…

– 6 to 12 inches of rainfall is expected for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida, especially closer to the coast. Inland areas will still likely pick up 5 to 9 inches of rain, all in addition to the rain/storms that happen tonight and tomorrow.

– There is high confidence that Memorial Day Monday will be a near complete “washout” day. Sunday will be QUITE wet as well. Flooding could quickly become an issue Sunday and will be exacerbated by additional rainfall Monday into Tuesday. If you or your business are near a creek or river, you need to be aware that flooding is very possible in the days ahead. Rapid rises in the water levels of local creeks are likely at this point.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The overall risk of tornadoes has increased for south Alabama and northwest Florida, as there is now much better track guidance suggesting a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. You MUST have a way to receive tornado warnings this weekend into early next week. NOAA Weather Radio is great. Weather Radio is a great iOS and Android app for automated warnings. Our RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) is a great supplement for our handcrafted alerts.

Some review points from this morning as this is still accurate and good info…

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Regardless of this system becomes a tropical storm, high wind impacts should remain limited across our region. Maximum sustained winds will likely peak in the 40-50mph range when the system approaches our area. This means that while gusty winds will be likely across our area, high winds (35+ mph) likely would not be an issue outside of the immediate beach zones. Land friction helps inland areas out quite a bit in situations like this. Confidence in this specific risk is medium, but growing.

DON’T MISS THE IMPACTS… Again, this system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next 4-5 days. It will take the name “Alberto” if it becomes a designated tropical storm. EVEN IF the system remains an open area of low pressure as it moves north across the Gulf of Mexico, impacts are expected across our region. Please don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because it doesn’t have a name, it’s not a big deal. It is a potentially high impact big deal, especially in terms of heavy rain/flash flooding.

SPAGHETTI PLOTS? I THINK NOT… Inevitably, you will see “spaghetti plots” floating around social media over the next few days. Just like last year, these model plots will show “tracks” all over the Gulf and all over the board. Take these images with a grain of salt. The alarmist loons of social media will point to ONE MODEL PLOT and take it entirely out of proportion to fit their fear-mongering agenda. If you see a post with scant details from a “Location X Weather Center” please refrain from sharing it. Generally, unless someone puts their real name or is a known, reputable source of info, it’s questionable info. I’ve seen it time and time again over the last few days.

APP… Thanks for your patience seeing this over and over. If you haven’t already, be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app on your iPhone or Android phone, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the big, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the specific alerts you’d like to get from me. I manually type and send all alerts. Nothing automated, as of now.

My next update will be posted here on Facebook on Friday morning by 7:15AM. Let me know if oyu have questions. Enjoy your evening!

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