4:04PM May 25, 2018

JUST IN: TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA COAST… Subtropical Storm Alberto continues to meander around the western Caribbean Sea as of 4PM. The storm is expected to move north in the days ahead, ultimately bringing 6-12″ of rain to south Alabama and northwest Florida. We note that recent model runs have suggested that the system has a slightly higher chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall early next week.

HURRICANE POTENTIAL… The latest runs of the European (ECMWF) model and other models have suggested that Subtropical Storm Alberto may make a run at becoming a minimal, category 1 hurricane in the days ahead as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. This will be a highly sheared storm, meaning convection will be displaced to the east a bit. That’s one thing working against strengthening. The storm will have warm (80-85°) sea surface temperatures to tap into before landfall, however. For now, the official NHC forecast calls for a moderate to strong tropical storm at landfall. We’ll have more about this potential tonight in the video update. Join me for a special Facebook Live in the 8PM hour.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED… The National Hurricane Center in coordination with local weather offices has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Grand Isle, Louisiana, eastward to Indian Pass, Florida. This includes the entirety of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. Also, all of northwest Florida is included.

STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED… A storm surge watch has been issued from Horseshoe Beach in Dixie County, Florida, eastward to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING LIKELY… You can see in the “cone of uncertainty” image attached that Alberto will abruptly slow down, in terms of the storm’s forward speed, once it reaches our local area. This will set up what could potentially be a major flash flooding/flooding event Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… Confidence has increased that a few tornadoes will be involved with this system as it moves across our area from south to north. The tornado threat across the area will be highest Sunday through Tuesday. Please have multiple ways to receive urgent warnings!

APP… Visit the Alerts tab (bottom right here in the RZW app) and tap the big, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to get from me. For detailed info about each notification setting option, scroll down in the Alerts tab area.

My next Facebook Live video update will be in the 8PM hour. See you then.

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