SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS… The area of low pressure we’ve been tracking for days near the Yucatan Peninsula has organized into Subtropical Storm Alberto. Maximum sustained winds are near 45mph on the far eastern flank of the system. Maximum wind speed likely won’t be as important in the days ahead as the big threat with this system will be the very heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding across our region. 6-12″ of rain is likely for coastal areas with 5-9″ of rain in inland communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida.
Above is the first “cone of uncertainty” issued by the National Hurricane Center… This puts our region on the unstable right front quadrant of the storm Monday into Tuesday, meaning the tornado risk will be most elevated then.
SUBTROPICAL VS. TROPICAL… What’s the difference? In terms of potential impacts and what matters to 99% of people reading this, not that much. A subtropical storm has convection/storms situated farther away from the center of circulation and lacks a central dense overcast over the center of the storm. Subtropical storms also aren’t fully tropical in that the core of the system isn’t entirely “warm core.” Tropical storms, on the other hand, have a stacked warm core with convection/storms closer to the center of the storm. IMPORTANT NOTE: Alberto will likely transition into a tropical storm over the next few days. Even if the system doesn’t, impacts for our local area remain on target.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY… This point cannot be stressed enough. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and flooding over the next few days is expected. Our local National Weather Service office continues to include the entirety of our area in significant/extreme risk zones (maxed out on the scale!) for potentially major flash flooding issues. Generally, communities south of a line from Chatom to Poarch to Brewton to Wing will pick up the most rain this weekend into early next week. This would includes places like Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Atmore, Walnut Hill, Jay, Flomaton, Baker, Navarre, and Destin.
Here is the latest graphic issued by NWS Mobile showing these threat areas.
TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY… Isolated tornadoes will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida, with the greatest risk being late Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Please have a way to get the urgent weather warnings!
WIND POTENTIAL… For now, high winds are not expected in inland areas. Communities near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches could have maximum sustained winds of 30-40mph likely on Monday as the core of the system approaches from the south.
I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next video will be posted this evening.