BIG HEADLINE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING… Subtropical Storm Alberto is now moving north and is crossing into the southern Gulf of Mexico right now. Local impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida are possible as early as Sunday morning as heavy rain begins to move in from the south, setting the stage for a potentially major flash flooding/flooding event across our region. There’s also growing concern that isolated tornadoes will happen across the area primarily Sunday through Tuesday. This is a *HIGHLY* detailed, 17 bullet point post outlining what you can expect. Please help me spread the detailed info for our region.
SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE… The key messages have not changed that much since last night. We’re in a “holding pattern” at this point, since the risks have been communicated ad nauseam basically since Wednesday. It is my hope that our messaging has been received well by people who usually aren’t “in tune” with what’s going on in the world of weather. Again, the main folks I’m concerned about are the people living in flood-prone areas as this could be a MAJOR flash flood/flooding event. People at the local beaches should have heightened awareness about this situation as well.
Here is a detailed summary of what you can expect in your specific county.
MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES… Communities in Mobile and Baldwin counties have the HIGHEST risk in our local area of experiencing flash flooding and river & creek flooding from Sunday through Wednesday. NWS Mobile calls this an *extreme risk* of flash flooding. 7-14″ of rain is expected. Periods of heavy rain are likely beginning overnight and into Sunday morning. There is a chance that once the rain starts, it won’t stop for quite some time. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. High winds are most likely as the core of Alberto moves by these communities Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Storm surge is likely along the Alabama coast at Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach.
ESCAMBIA (FL), SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA, WALTON COUNTIES… There is a HIGH risk of flash flooding and river & creek flooding from Sunday through Wednesday across these northwest Florida counties. NWS Mobile calls this an *extreme risk* of flash flooding as 6-12″ of rain is expected. Heavy rain is possible as early as this (Saturday) evening, but will most likely begin overnight and into Sunday morning. There is a chance that once the rain starts, it won’t stop for quite some time. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. High winds are most likely as the core of Alberto moves by these areas Monday midday through Tuesday morning. Storm surge is likely along the northwest Florida coast at Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning.
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ESCAMBIA COUNTY, ALABAMA… The flash flooding risk in Escambia County, Alabama is HIGH as 5-10″ of rain will be possible across much of the county. Heavy rain is possible as early as this (Saturday) evening, but will most likely begin overnight and into Sunday morning. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of our county, in terms of rainfall rates. One bit of good news is that rain amounts will be greater, most likely, to our south and not to our north. There is a chance, however, that local creeks and rivers could flood Monday through Wednesday. The tornado threat will be highest in Escambia County, AL Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time.
MONROE, CLARKE, WASHINGTON, CHOCTAW COUNTIES… There is a significant risk of flash flooding across inland counties of southwest Alabama as Alberto approaches and moves by. Heavy rain will likely move in on Sunday during the daytime hours. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of these communities in west Alabama, in terms of rainfall rates. The tornado threat will be highest in these west Alabama counties late Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time in these inland areas.
CONECUH, COVINGTON, BUTLER COUNTIES… There is a significant risk of flash flooding across inland counties of south central Alabama as Alberto approaches and moves by. Heavy rain will likely move in on Sunday during the daytime hours. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of these communities in south central Alabama, in terms of rainfall rates. The tornado threat will be highest in these west Alabama counties Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time in these inland areas.
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL… This key message from our local National Weather Service office has not changed. Long timers around here remember Hurricane Danny back in the 1990s that caused multiple FEET of rain near Mobile Bay. While the steering currents with Alberto will be a bit more helpful in getting the system out of here a bit quicker, this will still be a slow moving system that has the capability of dropping 6-15” of rain across our region, setting the stage for a major flash flood potential and/or river/creek flooding potential that extends well into next week.
TIMING: HEAVY RAIN… See the attached image for a detailed look at projected rainfall amounts. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again today (Saturday) across our area. These storms will be very similar to the storms we’ve had over the last few days, popping up in the heat of the day. The heavier, more consistent rain will approach the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline either late this evening or on Sunday morning. Heavy rain will spread northward into inland areas during the daytime hours of Sunday. This will set the stage for what will likely be a MAJOR flash flooding event. Big chance Monday and much of the day on Tuesday will be “all day washout” type days across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Monday, especially, looks wet. We’re calling it a 100% chance of rain for Memorial Day. Rain will finally start to clear out late on Wednesday. Again, a LONG FORM, HIGH IMPACT heavy rain event!
TIMING: FLASH FLOODING… The timing for flash flooding and flooding will be largely dependent on heavy rain and when it arrives across the area. For now, the best estimate shows that flash flooding will become a problem Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Keep in mind… Rain likely won’t stop once it starts, especially in coastal areas. Flash flooding will be likely Monday through Wednesday across the area. The greatest risk of flash flooding will happen across Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Escambia (FL) counties.
TIMING: RIVER & CREEK FLOODING… Again, this is largely dependent on the heavy rain and flash flooding, which translates into rapid water rises along local creeks and rivers. For now, we’re calling for rapidly rising water levels on rivers and creeks Monday into Tuesday. If your home or your business is located in a flood zone, even in INLAND areas, please closely monitor my posts over the next few days and be ready to protect people and property from rapidly rising water.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH… Due to the potential for 6-12+” of rain across much of the area, a flash flood watch has been issued valid this (Saturday) evening through Tuesday evening for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Escambia (FL) counties. Another Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued later today for Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, and Covington counties in south Alabama.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING… Coastal sections of Mobile and Baldwin counties in south Alabama and Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties in northwest Florida are under a Tropical Storm Watch. This means that sustained winds in excess of 40mph will be possible in these areas over the next 72 hours. Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin are all included. This will be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning later today.
TIMING: HIGH WIND THREAT… The core of Alberto (whether it’s a minimal hurricane or moderate to strong tropical storm really doesn’t matter that much) will reach south Alabama and northwest Florida likely during the daytime hours of Monday. Since forward speed of the storm will be slowing, there will be a prolonged period of gusty winds (50-60mph winds possible) at local beaches that could last until Tuesday afternoon. So again, from early Monday to Tuesday afternoon will be the core wind threat for coastal areas. Inland areas will have breezy conditions, but likely not much in the way of wind impacts.
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STORM SURGE WATCH… The National Hurricane Center has issued a storm surge watch for all of our local beach communities. Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin are all included. A Storm Surge Watch means potentially life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, is possible within 72 hours. This will be changed to a Storm Surge Warning later today.
DEADLY RIP CURRENTS… Rip currents kill more people around our local area compared to any other weather-related hazard. Most of these deaths happen to out of town folks who don’t even know the dangers of getting in the Gulf of Mexico on a high risk rip current day. From now through Wednesday, ALL local beaches in Alabama and northwest Florida have a maxed out HIGH RISK of rip currents. Please do not get in the water at local beaches!
APP… If you haven’t set up your customized alert experience yet, do it NOW before the storm impacts arrive! Tap the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) here in the RedZone Weather app and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you’d like to receive from us. A description for what you can expect for a Medium-Level Alert and Low-Level Alert can be found in the Alerts tab. Highly detailed info!
I will post updates on Facebook as needed today with MANY MORE updates in the RedZone Weather app starting around lunch when we get the next advisory. I would encourage you to get in the habit, during these severe weather events, of checking your RZW app just as much as our Facebook Page as we have plenty more posts daily in the RZW app. Have a nice Saturday!