7:07AM June 9, 2018

LATEST ON TROPICS; P.M. STORMS TODAY… There continues to be a low-end potential of tropical mischief developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 6-8 days. Unfortunately, there’s still a good bit of model uncertainty. Plenty of certainty, however, with the local forecast for today: Showers and thunderstorms are slated to pop up this afternoon and this evening across our area. High temperatures again peak in the mid-90s. Let’s talk details…

TROPICS: TO BE OR NOT TO BE? That’s definitely the million dollar question this morning, and one that NO one knows the answer to just yet. One suite of models (the American Global Forecast System) continues to consistently point to the development of a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean Sea in the middle to latter half of the upcoming week (Wednesday – Saturday timeframe). The ECMWF (European) model suite continues to point to a more neutral, seasonal pattern with no tropical system. Clarity will come over the next 2 days as we continue to get more data in. As I cautioned over the last two days, I would advise everyone across the Gulf Coast region (from Texas to Florida and all points in between) to keep tabs on this evolving system. No need to panic, worry, or have anxiety. The system may or may not materialize over the next few days.

REVIEW: DON’T CHANGE PLANS YET… Subtropical Storm Alberto was a good lesson/reminder for me and for everyone in this business in that there can and will be surprises with tropical systems. The forecast track of Alberto ended up being shifted to the east of our local area, for the most part, leaving most of us without any big impacts. Confidence remains LOW on development potential and where the system will go, thus no one needs to cancel plans for next week just yet. We will be in a “wait and see” pattern likely through Monday, at the earliest.

SHOWERS & STORMS LATER TODAY… Our seasonal, summer weather pattern is slated to continue today. Pulse, pop-up thunderstorms will form in the heat of the day between 1PM and 8PM. There won’t be any rhyme or reason as to where exactly storms pop up, but we know they will. High confidence that scattered storms will form this afternoon. I’ll have plenty of radar updates in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). High temperatures today will peak around 94° in most spots. Quite hot!

WEDDING DAY FOR MANY… Apparently there are numerous weddings happening across our region today! I’ve had more than a handful of questions about wedding/reception forecasts valid for today from various folks across our region. Congratulations to all of the good folks getting married. Unfortunately, all events will need an indoor backup plan this evening. This isn’t because we will have widespread, heavy rain. It’s because these pop-up storms can produce heavy rain for a generally short period of time with lots of lightning.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to turn ON “Medium-Level Alerts” for the latest information about this system by visiting the Alerts tab here in the RZWeather app (bottom right corner) and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize which alerts you would like to receive from me.

Have a great Saturday!

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