SCATTERED P.M. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; UPDATE ON TROPICS… Showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. Compared to Saturday and Sunday, there will be more storms around for a longer period of time. These are pulse-type thunderstorms that can be strong, but are generally not severe (see the note about tornadoes below). We continue to monitor a tropical wave moving east between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. We’ve got all the weather details for you… Let’s talk.
P.M. STORMS LIKELY TODAY & TUESDAY… Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today combined with the influence of a stalled frontal boundary will lead to numerous thunderstorms popping up. The greatest chance of rain/storms today happens between 11AM and 8PM in the peak heat hours of the day. Rain chances remain a bit higher than our climatological norms for this time of year over the next 5 days. Some of the storms could produce quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning this afternoon and over the next few days. High temperatures are slated to remain around 90° with morning lows in the lower-70s.
GULF/TROPICS QUIET… An area of low pressure located between the Lesser Antilles and Africa has basically run out of time to develop. The tropical wave is entering an environment today that is not conducive for development into a tropical storm. Atmospheric shear will rip the system apart. This is good news! The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea also remain quiet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low pressure well east of Bermuda in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean that could become a tropical storm over the next few days before it drifts northward over cooler waters. No land impacts are expected from that system.
NOTE ABOUT TORNADO RISK… The tornado risk this week remains at basically zero this week, which is usually the case throughout the summer months around here. Tornadoes need upper support to form, and generally in the summertime, we have pulse-type thunderstorms that rapidly fire up and rapidly fade. The pulse-type storms are generally not associated with a cold front or other larger scale feature. Tornado season happens locally in November, December, March, and April. Obviously, tornadoes happen outside of those months as well, but those are generally the months that feature the most tornadoes locally. Lots of scud clouds, lots of storms capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts, but not very many tornadoes in the summer months! (Obviously the exception to this rule is if we have a tropical storm/hurricane.)
I’ve got all the forecast details for you in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your day!