12:04PM August 19, 2018

STORMS TODAY & ANOTHER WET, WARM WEEK AHEAD… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Sunday afternoon. At the time this video is being produced (around Noon), heavy rain and thunderstorms are happening near Bay Minette, Stockton, Atmore, Perdido, Poarch, Creola, Berrydale, and Fidelis. High temperatures today will peak around 87° where it is not raining, but most of us will be stuck in the mid-80s as rain/clouds will keep temperatures a bit suppressed. There are MORE showers and storms in the forecast this week. The tropics, however, remain quiet. Let’s look at details…

HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY… An upper atmospheric trough combined with a surface frontal boundary and ample deep layer moisture will set the stage for another high (60-70%) chance of rain and thunderstorms on Monday into Tuesday. I’m not expecting a severe weather setup this week, but I would not be surprised if flash flooding becomes an issue in isolated locales during the early part of the week. Rain amounts will vary wildly, with some spots receiving less than one half of an inch of rain with others getting in excess of 3” of rain in total over the next 48 hours. Have a way to keep tabs on the radar over the next few days and please move inside if you’re in range of thunder. That means you’re close enough to the storm to be struck by lightning. “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

TROPICS QUIET AGAIN… Tropical Storm Ernesto became post-tropical yesterday as it moved toward Ireland. The tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles remains weak and is now in an environment where tropical storm formation cannot happen due to high atmospheric shear values. The remainder of the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, remain quiet. The National Hurricane Center notes that tropical storm formation is not expected over the next 5 days. We note that category 4 Hurricane Lane will pass just to the south of Hawaii over the next 3 days… Yet another brush with a major hurricane for the Pacific island chain.

DRIER END TO THE WEEK?… Most of our forecast models indicate a drier end to the week with rain chances plummeting for Wednesday and Thursday as the stalled front in place near our region dives southward into the Gulf of Mexico. I use the term “drier” very loosely, as rain chances will likely still be around 20-30% for Wednesday through Friday.

BE PREPARED… Despite numerous afternoon thunderstorms, 2018 has featured far less severe weather activity compared to 2017 for our local area. It’s not “if,” but “when” our severe weather risks will happen again! Now is the time to make sure you’re prepared for our next potential severe weather event, whether it be a hurricane or tornado event. One thing you can do that takes very little time to get prepared is to download the updated version of the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) and visit the “Alerts” tab (bottom right corner) to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. Have a great Sunday evening!

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