STORMS ACROSS THE REGION… Another classic summer day is in progress across south Alabama and northwest Florida with temperatures in the 90s and plenty of shower and thunderstorm action. At the moment, heavier rain is falling near Sardine, Canoe, Wing, Phillipsville, and Walnut Hill. Showers are ever so slowly drifting to the west.

More storms are likely to pop up over the coming hours. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain!

STORMS FIRING AREAWIDE… Numerous thunderstorms are rapidly firing up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Thursday. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain over the next few hours.

STORMS NORTH & SOUTH OF US… Several showers and thunderstorms are off to an early start this morning in Wilcox and Lowndes counties just to our north. We’re also monitoring storms just offshore from Pensacola Beach and Navarre.

Showers and storms will pop up across our area over the next several hours. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain as we go into the afternoon hours!

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE TROPICS… The Atlantic basin is coming alive, with multiple areas of tropical concerns coming into focus over the next week or so. Today, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Seasonal conditions are ahead for the weekend with more scattered thunderstorms and plenty of heat and humidity. Again, the concern this morning has shifted to next week when multiple tropical systems could be happening across the Atlantic basin. Let’s talk details…

POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM IN GULF NEXT WEEK… As we first mentioned last evening, there is a low, yet increasing, chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm may form in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Uncertainties loom large, as this system is still about a week out, but several reliable models point to “tropical mischief” forming near the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead. Main headline on this Wednesday evening is that there is considerable uncertainty (thus absolutely no need for fear, panic, or stress), yet some weather models show a potential tropical storm affecting south Alabama and northwest Florida late next week.

EURO MODEL: TROPICAL STORM… The European (ECWMF) model continues to be the more “bullish” solution concerning this system. That means that out of most/all the models we look at on a daily basis, the intensity/track favors more impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida. We note this morning, however, that the Euro has ramped down over the last couple of runs, AND is suggesting a more southerly track for this potential tropical system more in line with other models. This is good news, but again, plenty of uncertainty.

GFS MODEL: OPEN WAVE IN CENTRAL GULF… The Global Forecast System (GFS), an American model, has vehemently suggested a more southerly route for this system across the Gulf AND a weaker solution. The GFS suggests a tropical wave will move across the Florida Peninsula (south Florida, that is) this weekend and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The GFS then maintains the system as a tropical wave (and not a tropical storm) as it moves toward Texas/Louisiana later in the week. Obviously this would be a great scenario for our local area as very little in the way of direct impacts would happen.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION LIKELY NEAR AFRICA… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 60% chance that a tropical wave about to emerge from the African continent will develop into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead. Most global weather models indicate this system will recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic without it affecting land, but it’s very early in the forecast process. Further forecast refinements will be necessary.

FLURRY OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AHEAD?… The ensemble members of the major global models have “flipped the switch” on hurricane season really coming alive over the next 2 weeks. In addition to the two previously discussed systems, the European model suggests some tropical activity forming north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. We’ll keep you posted as we enter what could be a very active September. (Generally, September is always the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season with the climatological peak of the season being September 11.)

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY… All the activity/potential of the tropics has pushed the discussion about today’s weather way down in the post, so if you’re reading this far down, thank you! Our data shows only 30-40% people actually read this far down! Another day with high temperatures in the low-90s with scattered showers and thunderstorms is upcoming. Most of the storms will happen in the heat of the day between Noon and 7PM.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… I’ve put the rain chance on Friday at 50%, meaning approximately half of us will see rain before the end of the day on Friday. Storms should progressively fade after 6PM on Friday, but there inevitably will be some locales across the region that are wet at 7PM kickoff. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed out to a football game on Friday evening. redzoneweather.com/radar is the link you can use OR you can tap the Radar tab in the RedZone Weather app.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to turn ON “Medium-Level Alerts” for the latest information about the tropical systems by visiting the Alerts tab (bottom right corner here in the RZWeather app) and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize which alerts you would like to receive from me.

JAY ELEMENTARY TODAY… I’m looking forward to discussing severe weather safety and talking about RedZone Weather and our wonderful sponsors with the 1st graders at Jay Elementary School in Jay, Florida today.

Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. More details are in the Thursday #rzw forecast video that will be posted shortly here in the RZWeather app… Have a great day!

FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS… Isolated showers and thunderstorms have popped up late this evening across portions of Conecuh and Okaloosa counties. These storms are small, but are producing heavy areas of rain. Nothing severe. A few showers and storms will be possible overnight, but vast majority of us should be dry. Another round of storms is expected to fire up late morning on Thursday.

STORMS NORTH OF THOMASVILLE… Southwest Alabama and northwest Florida has quieted down for the evening, but several showers and storms are still in progress in northern Wilcox County near Millers Ferry.

Another round of showers and storms will pop up on Thursday across our region.

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEXT WEEK… There is a low, but increasing, chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm may form in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Uncertainties loom large, as this system is still about a week out, but several reliable models point to “tropical mischief” forming near the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead. Main headline on this Wednesday evening is that there is considerable uncertainty (thus absolutely no need for fear, panic, or stress), yet some weather models show a potential tropical storm affecting south Alabama and northwest Florida late next week. Let’s talk details about what we do know…

EURO MODEL: TROPICAL STORM… We look at a variety of weather models each day to generate a forecast. One of the models that often proves reliable is the ECMWF (European) model. This model has suggested for the last few days that a tropical depression or tropical storm could form near The Bahamas before crossing the Florida Peninsula and emerging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The European model brings the system rapidly to the northwest over the warm waters of the Gulf, before moving the system inland along the northern Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL/FL). This is ONE idea on the table and must not be taken at face value as exactly what WILL happen. It’s one idea of what COULD happen.

GFS MODEL: OPEN WAVE IN CENTRAL GULF… Adding to the uncertainty is that the American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has consistently suggested that this same system will remain weak, in the form of an open tropical wave, as it moves from east to west across the Gulf of Mexico. We note that the GFS has been more bullish on the idea of taking the system well to our south and ultimately into Texas or Louisiana late next week as a much weaker system. The Canadian and Japanese models also lean toward this “weaker, more westerly” solution.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY… The “truth” of what will likely happen is probably somewhere in the middle of these two solutions. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows IF this area of low pressure will develop into a tropical storm or remain an open tropical wave. The key message as of now is that we are monitoring a low-end potential for a tropical storm that COULD threaten Alabama and northwest Florida. Certainly doesn’t mean that will happen. It’s one possibility.

DON’T CHANGE ANY PLANS YET… It’s way too early to consider trip/vacation cancellations/postponements. We’re in a “wait and see” mode at this point. More guidance will provide clarity later this week into the weekend.

WARM WATERS IN GULF OF MEXICO… It’s totally normal for the Gulf of Mexico to feature sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of mid- to upper-80s this time of year, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Several buoys are reporting water temperatures of 86, 87, and 88° in the northeast part of the Gulf where this potential tropical system could move. Water temperatures in that range are conducive for significant tropical/hurricane development, although that’s only ONE ingredient in this process. I meet folks that stress out over high water temperature values in the Gulf, when in truth, that’s one piece of the 20 piece puzzle. Moisture content in the atmosphere, shear values near and around the storm, and surrounding pressure systems (like the Bermuda high, as one example) are all other factors that must be weighed properly when forecasting tropical systems.

DISTINCT SYSTEM EMERGING FROM AFRICA… The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that will emerge from the African continent into the far eastern waters of the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. This system now has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead. Plenty of uncertainty with the future track, but early model indications point to this system recurving into the open waters of the Atlantic between Europe and Bermuda and affecting no land masses. That would be a great thing IF that solution verifies. We’ll keep you posted about this separate, distinct system as well.

CRAZY POSTS AHEAD: BEWARE… As I consistently caution when we start looking at tropical development potentials: If you’re reading this on social media, odds support that you’re going to see some crazy, bizarre, “fear mongering” posts in the days ahead. It’s a sad part of today’s world. Again, the truth is, we don’t have a firm grip just yet of anything concrete. What we know at this point is there is a growing consensus that a tropical storm could form/move across the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Please join me in not sharing bad info… That just feeds the trolls, hype machine, fear mongers, and click-baiters. It is stunning that we have trained meteorologists that feed into this fear-based narrative, yet it happens A LOT in these situations. Please ignore the HYPE. My working guidance for folks is — if there aren’t a lot of details/clarity (aka if a post is two lines long without explanation), it probably isn’t worth your time and certainly not worth your “share” on social media.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to turn ON “Medium-Level Alerts” for the latest information about this system by visiting the Alerts tab (bottom right corner here in the RZWeather app) and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize which alerts you would like to receive from me.