1:35PM September 1, 2018

CHANCES INCREASE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center has slightly increased the official projection for probability of tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. There is now a 40% chance that the tropical wave currently situated over the southeastern Bahamas will become a tropical storm over the next 4-5 days. While uncertainty remains in model guidance, models have been consistent in the idea of the tropical feature (whether it be a tropical wave, tropical depression, or tropical storm) moving near or just to our south in the Gulf in the days ahead. My next video regarding this tropical storm potential will be posted on Sunday afternoon, but here are a few notes about what we know and what we don’t know as of Saturday afternoon…

TROPICAL STORM NEAR OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH… The most likely scenario at this point regarding this system is that a tropical depression or tropical storm will move near our area OR just to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. This system will be moving from southwest to northeast in the days ahead as it moves near/over southern Florida then over the Gulf of Mexico.

TIMEFRAME SHIFTED JUST A BIT… Development, if any, will likely happen earlier in the week than previously advertised, most likely between Monday and Wednesday. Landfall of the system will likely happen Tuesday into Wednesday, but again, even this is still a bit uncertain.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… For south Alabama and northwest Florida, local impacts will depend largely on the track of the system. This is a very low confidence situation that will have to be adjusted in the days ahead. MOST model guidance suggests that this tropical feature will remain offshore, south of our local area before moving inland to our west in Louisiana or Texas. This would mean that rain chances may be slightly elevated Tuesday into Wednesday with flash flooding being a potential concern. Beyond that, based on current model guidance, local impacts would be limited. Again, this can change based on new data and we’ll be diligently monitoring model trends over the next few days and bring you the latest.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONSISTENT… It seems likely that this system will remain a weak, open tropical wave OR a tropical depression OR a tropical storm once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. That’s a good range of the likely “intensity options,” as they stand right now. NO model guidance (none!) has suggested that this system will ramp up to hurricane. Obviously that could change, but I am encouraged that the overall environment in the Gulf is not likely to be supportive of a hurricane next week. We’ll keep watching.

APP… We’ll have updates here in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days. I’ll have updates there over the next few hours. Have a good evening! Roll Tide, War Eagle, Go Trojans, Go Jags, and happy kickoff weekend.

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