4:55PM 10/22/2018 – RZW Exec

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening. There is an increasing, but still low-end, chance that we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes on Thursday across our coastal counties. Thursday will be quite wet across the region as an area of low pressure moves near our coastline or just to the south. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to where this surface low will track, and honestly the specific track will determine whether or not tornadoes will happen. Some models keep the center of the low offshore, which would bode MUCH better for our area and eliminate the severe weather risk. Other models show the area of low pressure tracking farther inland, meaning areas south of the accompanying warm front would be in a zone where tornadoes would be possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS… Isolated tornadoes possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida. Heavy rain is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place.

SEVERITY… Low-end risk of a few, brief, isolated tornadoes… Most areas will have general rain and storms with little in the way of significant impacts.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk will almost certainly be in coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Wednesday. The severe weather risk could kick off as early as 5AM and extend well into Wednesday evening. For now, we’ll go with a core severe weather timeframe of 8AM Wednesday to 8PM Wednesday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Tuesday, October 23). We will begin our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk later this evening.

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