TORNADO RISK LESSENS FOR THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Confidence is higher today that the tornado risk across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida will be quite limited. Yesterday, there was a good bit of model divergence concerning the extent of the tornado potential across coastal areas. Most models keep the center of the area of low pressure to our south and offshore. This means that vast majority of our area would be NORTH of the accompanying warm front, meaning odds are we won’t have any significant severe weather issues to contend with in south Alabama or northwest Florida. That being said, the tornado risk at the coast is not zero just yet. Because of this, we will continue to advertise a “low-end risk” of tornadic storms near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida coastline for Thursday. Rainfall will be the big story, with some spots getting 2-3″ of rain in total.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS… A brief, isolated tornado or two will be possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday into Thursday night. There is a significant chance that the tornado risk will NOT materialize due to the placement of the warm front being to our south. Heavy rain, however, is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place. You can see in the model output image (below) that Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE, aka atmospheric instability) values will be very low across vast majority of our area valid at 7PM on Thursday, with the higher CAPE values located offshore. Instability is one ingredient that can significantly influence whether storms become severe.
SEVERITY… Intermittent times of heavy rain will almost certainly happen on Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that isolated flash flooding will be possible in spots. The tornado risk remains NEAR ZERO for inland counties. The tornado risk near the immediate coastline remains LOW, but not zero.
LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk, if it materializes, will set up in the southern part of coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.
TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Thursday. If an isolated tornadoes happen near the coast, the risk is greatest between 10AM and 10PM on Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Wednesday, October 24). We will continue our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk for coastal areas on Twitter and in public-facing sections of the RZWeather app today into tomorrow. As always, let me know if you have any questions or concerns.