ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK… We’ve had a very few active weather months with that trend continuing this week. A cold front moving in from the northwest will create at least some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to introduce a Level 1 or Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for our local area valid for Thursday. They will issue this in their next round of updates overnight, so this RZW Exec post serves as an “early heads up” that our severe weather messaging will likely be ramping up over the next 48-72 hours.
TIMING OF STORMS… Most model guidance points to a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS, aka a squall line) setting up to our west in Mississippi and tracking to the east in the morning hours of Thursday. This means that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 7AM and 4PM on Thursday.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip.
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK… This is a similar weather pattern setup to our severe weather potential that happened last week, but I do think that this system has the potential to be a bit more potent and produce a few more storms, comparatively, as parameters off the model data seem a bit more robust and supportive of a few stronger storms.
RISK LEVELS… Now that we are entering secondary severe weather/tornado season around our area, it’s a good time to review the risk levels and what they mean. Below is a review graphic explaining the different risk levels. Instead of using proprietary, subjective indices (like Tor:Con and some others that are subjective and terrible in my opinion), I use the industry standard convective outlook forecasts produced by the incredible meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will likely begin our public messaging about this event as early as this evening. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 7PM on Tuesday, October 30 (tomorrow). As always, please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!