ISOLATED TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line wind gusts will become possible late Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center continues to suggest that scattered instances of severe thunderstorms capable of downing a few trees will be possible late morning into the afternoon hours. Let’s look at details…

NO MAJOR ISSUES TODAY (WEDNESDAY)… It is Halloween, and for the trick-or-treaters in our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, there is a high probability that dry and warm conditions will prevail this evening. There could be a rogue shower or two in west Alabama, particularly in Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, and Mobile counties. Most of us, however, will be dry with temperatures in the 70s tonight.

SHOWERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT… Overnight, I expect a few isolated showers to move north across our region. Again, most in the overnight will be dry, but if you’re out and about in the middle of the night, there could be isolated downpours of heavy rain, particularly in west Alabama.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING… The latest model data continues to suggest that a squall line (quasi-linear convective system/QLCS) will move from west to east across Mississippi, Louisiana, and ultimately into the western parts of Alabama and northwest Florida. The squall line is most likely to reach west Alabama in the late morning hours.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The greatest chance of isolated tornadoes/damaging straight line winds will happen between 10AM and 5PM in our local area. There is a chance that a few storms may pop up out ahead of the main line of storms, and these discrete storms could be the primary tornado threat of the day. This will be something to monitor on Wednesday morning.

HAZARDS… Tornadoes will definitely be a concern, BUT damaging winds will be the main concern. There’s a chance that these damaging straight line winds in the squall line could be intense. I would not be surprised to see several reports of trees being downed across our region. Heavy rain will also happen as the line of storms moves by. In addition to this, because of the risk of the discrete supercell thunderstorms, there will be a threat of large hail as well. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible on Thursday!

BETTER WEATHER LATE THURSDAY EVENING… Once the main (squall) line of storms moves through your specific area, the severe weather risk will end and I’ll be able to give you an “all clear.” Cooler, drier, more stable air will move in late on Thursday evening, paving the way for a gorgeous weekend.

CLOUDS FRIDAY; SUNNY SATURDAY & SUNDAY… Clouds will likely stick around for much of the day on Friday with high temperatures being stuck most likely in the mid- to upper-60s. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Saturday and for Sunday and high temps will rise into the 70s each day. Overnight lows at 6AM on Saturday could easily be near 40 degrees in some spots!

APP ALERTS… I’ll have plenty of updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Once you get the app, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner to customize the handcrafted alerts that you want to recieve straight from me.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Enjoy your Wednesday! Be sure to see the graphics and more details in the video that will be available shortly in the RZWeather app.

INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an intense squall line will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east during the daytime hours of Thursday. The chance of severe weather, particularly damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes, has increased somewhat compared to last evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of the southern half of Alabama, northwest Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southeast Mississippi in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This means that scattered instances of severe storms capable of knocking down a few trees will be possible.

DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT… The squall line will be setting up well to our west near the Mississippi River on Wednesday evening. This means that vast majority of us will be DRY for Halloween evening, which is great news for trick-or-treaters! Temperatures will be mild, in the 70s tomorrow night. The severe weather potential starts Thursday morning…

STORMS OUT AHEAD OF MAIN LINE… There’s also some concern this evening that an isolated supercell thunderstorm or two may develop out ahead of the main line of storms. This would mean a potentially higher tornado risk IF the storms out ahead of the line materialize. We won’t know if that will be the case for sure until Thursday morning when the system is just to our west in southern Mississippi. Regardless of this, damaging straight line winds and isolated embedded tornadoes will be possible in the main squall line of storms that moves through.

TIMING OF THE STORMS… The severe weather risk could begin as early as 7AM over west Alabama and could extend to 7PM in the eastern part of our local area. At this point, confidence is growing that the greatest chance of severe weather will be from 10AM to 5PM on Thursday, November 1. Secondary severe weather season looks to kick off with a strong line of storms!

HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS… There’s also evidence this evening that rainfall totals could be a bit higher than previously suggested. Most spots across the region will likely pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total, meaning some spots may have some nuisance-type flash flooding issues. The greater rain amounts will likely happen east of the Alabama River in west Alabama.

SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON… Right on cue, secondary severe weather season is kicking off November 1 and will last through December. Our primary severe weather season is in March and April. Those are the two months when tornado warnings are most likely in our local area. November and December are ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively. Don’t be surprised to hear more tornado risks in the weeks ahead. It’s a part of life around our local area in the spring and fall months.

KNOW THAT PLAN AND ACT… Now is the time to review your tornado safety plan that we preach constantly throughout the year to school kids, civic clubs, and pretty much anyone that will listen. When a tornado warning is issued, we encourage you to get to the lowest floor of a well-built, site-built structure in a small, interior room near the center of the structure. This typically means a hallway, closet, or bathroom with no windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are generally not safe during tornadoes. Those are two of the places you absolutely should NOT be during a tornado warning. Everyone should have a helmet or something sturdy to protect your head from flying debris. It looks funny, yes, but they truly are LIFE-saving! Have a way to get the warnings and then DO SOMETHING about it when the warning is issued. So many people get the warnings these days and don’t take any action. That’s a problem. TAKE ACTION when the warning is issued.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Thank you so much to the thousands of people who have downloaded and regularly use our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.

Be sure to check back with me on Wednesday as this is an evolving severe weather setup. Further forecast refinements are possible. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

NICE TUESDAY; FEW STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY… Rain and thunderstorms that could be on the strong side are possible on Thursday, but not before a gorgeous, warm Tuesday with high temperatures around 82 in most spots. Other than a few areas of fog that will burn off this morning, no weather issues are expected today. Clouds will increase on Wednesday ahead of our next rain chance late Wednesday night into Thursday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as this system gets set to move through. Let’s talk details…

TIMING OF STORMS… Most model guidance points to a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS, aka a squall line) setting up to our west in Mississippi and tracking to the east in the morning hours of Thursday. This means that the greatest chance of severe weather in our local area, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 7AM and 4PM on Thursday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. Flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip. Rain definitely will be heavy at times in the stronger storms.

COMPARED TO LAST WEEK… This is a similar weather pattern setup to our severe weather potential that happened last week, but I do think that this system has the potential to be a bit more potent and produce a few more storms, comparatively, as parameters off the model data seem a bit more robust and supportive of a few stronger storms.

COOLER AIR MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY… All of this active weather is happening as a cold front gets set to move by on Thursday evening. High temperatures on Friday and into the weekend will be significantly cooler, in the 60s and 70s each afternoon in most spots. Overnight lows will be in the 40s this weekend.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Secondary severe weather season is set to kick off November 1st with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps featuring a few tornadoes. The good news is that most trick-or-treating events on Wednesday night should be dry locally. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to introduce a Level 1 or Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for our local area valid for Thursday. Damaging straight line winds will be the number one concern, as this will likely shape up to be a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), better known as a squall line. There could be a few, brief, embedded tornadoes as well. Let’s talk details…

DRY TUESDAY; MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY… No weather issues are expected on Tuesday other than some areas of patchy dense fog early in the morning. Full sunshine is expected Tuesday with clouds increasing on Wednesday. Other than a few small, isolated showers in Mobile, Washington, and Choctaw counties in far western parts of Alabama, I expect vast majority of our local area to be DRY Wednesday evening. This means that most municipalities that are conducting Halloween trick-or-treating should be dry. Wednesday evening is when a squall line will be setting up near the Mississippi River moving to the east.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… This will be the first squall line/QLCS event our area has had in quite some time. At this point, it seems logical that the Storm Prediction Center will introduce a Level 2 (standard, slight) risk valid for Thursday for south Alabama, northwest Florida, and much of the Florida Panhandle. This will likely be a situation featuring isolated instances of downed trees due to straight line winds. There also could be a few embedded tornadoes in the main line of storms. Flash flooding will likely be limited by the fact that this will be a narrow, fast-moving line of storms.

COMPARED TO LAST WEEK… I don’t like getting into the comparison business, as each severe weather potential is unique. This is a similar weather pattern setup to our severe weather potential that happened last week, but I do think that this system has a high chance to be a bit more potent and produce more thunderstorms, comparatively, as parameters off the model data seem a bit more robust and supportive of a few stronger storms. The ECMWF/Euro model is particularly bullish with the chance of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes. We note the Euro model is a bit slower compared to the GFS model, meaning storms would likely have a bit more energy/CAPE to work with in the middle of the day on Thursday across our region.

TIMING OF STORMS… Still some uncertainty with timing, so we’ll definitely have to refine this in the days ahead. The highest chance of severe weather in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 5AM to 5PM Thursday. Storms will move eastward into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with the 12 hour window being 10AM to 10PM on Thursday. Keep close tabs on this severe weather setup, particularly if you have outdoor plans Thursday afternoon/evening. There is a high chance that there will be heavy rain and potentially a few strong to severe storms in progress.

‘TIS THE SEASON… Right on cue, secondary severe weather season is kicking off November 1 and will last through December. Our primary severe weather season is in March and April. Those are the two months when tornado warnings are most likely in our local area. November and December are ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively. Don’t be surprised to hear more tornado risks in the weeks ahead. It’s a part of life around our local area in the spring and fall months.

HAVE A PLAN… Now is the time to review your tornado safety plan that we preach constantly throughout the year to school kids, civic clubs, and pretty much anyone that will listen. When a tornado warning is issued, we encourage you to get to the lowest floor of a well-built, site-built structure in a small, interior room near the center of the structure. This typically means a hallway, closet, or bathroom with no windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are generally not safe during tornadoes. Those are two of the places you absolutely should NOT be during a tornado warning. Everyone should have a helmet or something sturdy to protect your head from flying debris. It looks funny, yes, but they truly are LIFE-saving! Have a way to get the warnings and then DO SOMETHING about it when the warning is issued. So many people get the warnings these days and don’t take any action. That’s a problem. TAKE ACTION when the warning is issued.

APP ALERTS… Thank you so much to the thousands of people who have downloaded and regularly use our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.

Be sure to check back with me throughout the week as this is an evolving severe weather setup. Further forecast refinements are likely. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!