12:34PM November 3, 2018


SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY NEXT WEEK… The Storm Prediction Center has issued an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for much of northwest Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and much of Tennessee. Strong, potentially long track tornadoes will become possible Monday evening into Tuesday across those areas. Locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida, there is now a Level 2 slight risk in place for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in west Alabama. While the bigger issues will very likely be to our northwest, there still is a lower-end tornado and damaging wind risk in our local area, especially in west Alabama. Forecast refinements continue to happen so please check back with me on Sunday and Monday in the lead-up to this potentially significant severe weather event. That is the summary – below are the extensive details…

CHANGES SINCE YESTERDAY’S UPDATE… The latest model data has trended a bit farther north for the core of the major severe weather risk setting up for Monday into Tuesday. This is why the Level 3 enhanced risk zone is in place for the northern half of Mississippi (north of I-20), the northwest part of Alabama (northwest of I-59), much of Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas. This bodes well for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as confidence is a bit higher that the major issues will be well to our north and west.

GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA… Communities in the Level 3 enhanced risk zone in north/west Alabama have the greatest chance of experiencing a tornado, damaging winds, and large hail. All modes of severe weather will be possible in these areas on Monday into Tuesday: Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Cullman, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Hamilton, Carrollton, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Decatur, Athens, and Ardmore. These are the areas where severe weather parameters will likely be highest.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE STATE… The standard, Level 2 slight risk of severe weather is in place for many more communities in Alabama, including some in the local area. These are the areas that have a tornado and damaging wind risk in the slightly lower (but still very significant!) Level 2 zone: Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, McIntosh, Wagerville, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Demopolis, Sweet Water, Linden, Camden, Pine Hill, Selma, Marion, Eutaw, Livingston, Centreville, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Birmingham, Leeds, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Sylacauga, Rockford, Centre, Fort Payne, and Boaz.

EXPECTATIONS FOR LOCAL AREA… The severe weather risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning with the main risk coming from a QLCS/squall line of intense thunderstorms. There is a lower-end risk, especially in west Alabama, of a few discrete supercell thunderstorms happening, but I think core of the supercell risk will be well to our north. For our local area, if you are in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Monroe, Marengo, or Wilcox counties, you have the highest risk of experiencing severe weather from this event.

LOWER-END RISK FOR MOST FOLKS LOCALLY… There is a low-end, Level 1 marginal risk in place for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties, meaning an isolated strong storm may happen. Odds are most of these areas will just have general thunderstorms due to what will likely be a weakening line of thunderstorms Tuesday morning.

APP ALERTS… Before this potential significant round of severe weather happens, NOW is the time to get prepared. Be sure to set up customized app alerts in the RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app on your iOS or Android device, check out the Alerts tab in the lower right corner, then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you would like to receive.

Have a great Saturday evening!

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