2:05PM November 4, 2018

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely happen across northwest Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and Tennessee on Monday into Tuesday morning. There is still some question as to just how far a developing squall line will move south following the development of supercell thunderstorms to our north. Washington, Choctaw, Clarke, and Wilcox counties have the greatest risk of seeing a strong to severe storm in our local area. We note that much of the remainder of our area is included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for the late evening hours of Monday into Tuesday. It’s an active time in the world of weather around here. Let’s talk…
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY… No severe weather issues are expected on this Sunday across south Alabama or northwest Florida. Clouds will increase across our region today and temperatures will likely remain in the 70s this afternoon as a warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns. There could be a few showers around, particularly in coastal counties and in west Alabama. Most spots today should be dry through sunset.
The information below has largely not changed since yesterday with the greatest risk of severe storms in Alabama being in the north/western corner of the state. Here are the details…
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA… Communities in the Level 3 enhanced risk zone in north/west Alabama have the greatest chance of experiencing a tornado, damaging winds, and large hail. All modes of severe weather will be possible in these areas on Monday into Tuesday: Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Cullman, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Hamilton, Carrollton, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Decatur, Athens, and Ardmore. These are the areas where severe weather parameters will likely be highest.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE STATE… The standard, Level 2 slight risk of severe weather is in place for many more communities in Alabama, including some in the local area. These are the areas that have a tornado and damaging wind risk in the slightly lower (but still very significant!) Level 2 zone: Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, McIntosh, Wagerville, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Demopolis, Sweet Water, Linden, Camden, Pine Hill, Selma, Marion, Eutaw, Livingston, Centreville, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Birmingham, Leeds, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Sylacauga, Rockford, Centre, Fort Payne, and Boaz.
FORECAST FOR LOCAL AREA… The severe weather risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning with the main risk coming from a QLCS/squall line of intense thunderstorms. There is a lower-end risk, especially in west Alabama, of a few discrete supercell thunderstorms happening, but I think core of the supercell risk will be well to our north. For our local area, if you are in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Monroe, Marengo, or Wilcox counties, you have the highest risk of experiencing severe weather from this event.
LOWER-END RISK FOR MOST FOLKS LOCALLY… There is a low-end, Level 1 marginal risk in place for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties, meaning an isolated strong storm may happen. Odds are most of these areas will just have general thunderstorms due to what will likely be a weakening line of thunderstorms Tuesday morning.
APP… Before this potential significant round of severe weather happens, NOW is the time to get prepared. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app and set up customized app alerts. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app on your iOS or Android device, check out the Alerts tab in the lower right corner, then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you would like to receive.

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