STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! Heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will make Monday, November 12 an active weather day across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While much of the local area remains in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes, the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding continues to increase. We’ve adjusted projected rainfall amounts even higher. Vast majority of the local area will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain, with some spots likely getting upwards of 5 inches of total rainfall.
POTENTIAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… There will be brief window for tornadic development on Monday. 9AM to 5PM will be the core risk time for a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado risk will happen in the small supercell storms that form out ahead of the main squall line that will pass by. Supercell development will be possible as early as 9AM and extend into the early evening hours. There could be a few brief, spin-up tornadoes in the main line of storms that passes in the afternoon/evening hours.
TORNADO RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5. Areas near and south of Citronelle, Tensaw, Castleberry, Andalusia, and Opp have the greatest tornado risk. These are the areas outlined in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 1 risk zone, depicted in the graphic below.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE… The risk of damaging straight line winds will occur as the main, squall line of storms passes through our area in the afternoon and evening hours. Note that once the squall line moves by a given location, the severe weather risk will come to an end. 1PM to 6PM will be the core risk timeframe for the potential of damaging straight line winds.
DAMAGING WIND RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… This very well could become the headline risk tomorrow with this system as there will be some areas that have 5 inches of rainfall before all is said and done. Vast majority of us across south Alabama & NW Florida will receive 3-4″ of rain. This will be a good, soaking rain across the region.
FLASH FLOODING RISK… Slight. Level 2 out of 5.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING
MAIN RISK IN AFTERNOON… There is somewhat of a mismatch of timing in the potential risks on Monday, as specifically detailed in the assessment above. The big takeaway is that strong storms will be possible 9AM to 5PM, with the core risk being in the early afternoon hours. The risk of flash flooding will not end at 5PM as heavy rain will likely continue well into the overnight hours and extend into Tuesday. Below, see the 3 kilometer North American Model projected radar valid at 3PM showing an advancing line of strong storms moving across our region.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will have a special LIVE edition of the Sunday #rzw forecast video that will air within the next hour. Please continue to monitor our public-facing products on social media and in the RedZone Weather app. The final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 10AM on Monday. If you have specific questions or concerns, don’t hesitate to reach out. Thanks and have a good Veterans Day holiday.