6:56AM January 14, 2019

NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST DESPITE HYPE TRAIN… We stick to the forecast facts in the video this morning despite the social media hype train going absolutely crazy over the last 24 hours about a potential Deep South winter weather event in 7-10 days. Let’s talk about what we know AND the plenty that we don’t know…

WHAT WE KNOW… There is a high (70-80%) chance that significantly colder air will move into the Deep South in 7-10 days (a week from today in the January 21 timeframe). Global models have been consistent with this idea. There is a growing chance that we could have several (2-5) days with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. See below for more about this but we will have some RAIN later this week into this weekend, but no chance of snow is expected with that particular weather system.

WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW YET… I’ve had several many questions about the potential for snow in our local area next week. Rain will likely happen, but snow remains unlikely based on the latest model scenarios. It’s entirely too early to be specific about the potential for a few snowflakes 7-14 days out. It’s true that some model scenarios over the last 24 hours have painted a picture where there could be snow near our area OR just to our north, but again, those are model scenarios that change considerably run-to-run. Model data is just one component of forecasting, and unfortunately, there is no skill forecasting beyond 7 days out. Stay tuned.

COLD MONDAY; SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEK… Keep the jackets handy throughout the day on this Monday as cold, dry air remains in place across our region. The remaining clouds will move out by midday, setting the stage for a sunny afternoon and clear evening. High temperatures will peak in the mid-50s.

SUNNY, COOL TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY AHEAD… Plenty of sunshine is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as high temps creep into the low-60s. Overnight lows will be in mid-30s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Winds will shift from out of the south by Thursday, paving the way for temperatures to warm up a bit.

RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND… The earliest chance of rain will come Thursday night into early Friday morning when a few showers could stream in from the Gulf of Mexico. Friday will likely be a wet day for the entirety of the region as numerous showers are expected. Yet again, instability could potentially be limited meaning that widespread storms are not likely at this point. We’ll keep watching this potential, but it’s good news for now. Again, NO snow with this system!

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video that will be available in the post above shortly… Have a great start to your week!

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