SNOW HYPE GONE VIRAL… Rumors of snow have been greatly exaggerated today. My inbox has been on fire today (more than normal) asking about an alleged snow potential for the upcoming weekend into early next week. The attached images have gone viral on multiple social media pages today. There are several big problems with this. Let’s talk…
LONG RANGE MODEL IMAGES UNHELPFUL… I use a variety of weather models to make a forecast every, single day. The models are truly vital to what I do each day. I am thankful for the efforts of the governments and organizations that make our model output possible. Models are like recipes, showing a potential roadmap for how atmospheric ingredients come together to make our weather everyday. Models are susceptible to/designed to pick up small, minute changes that can drastically alter how output is rendered. The image being circulated heavily today is one run of one model (ECMWF) showing the potential in 10 or so days for snow across the Deep South. The problem here? There are 10 other models from the same run time that show NO snow across our area. The other problem? It’s one run of one model. It hasn’t been a consistent idea off this one model for any length of time.
DON’T FEED THE TROLLS… Please do not share these whacko, click baiting posts. It really is a huge problem that we face in the weather enterprise. My initial thought was to put a big, red “FAKE NEWS” as the large text over the images attached, but it actually isn’t fake news as much as it is horribly misleading, click baiting information.
THE PROBLEM IS GROWING… Viral posts like the image attached are designed to get clicks, likes, and shares. Unfortunately, some professional meteorologists have learned this tactic and will post model output images ten days out. This is not only irresponsible, it’s dangerous. Why? Like it or not, posting images like this 10 days out causes certain folks to trust the weather enterprise (as a whole) less. One idea from one model is a lot different than an actual forecast that is handcrafted by a trained meteorologist.
KNOW YOUR SOURCE… Generally speaking, social media pages that are obscure names like “Alabama Gulf Coast Weather” with no real human name or reputable media name attached are run by people that, frankly, have no business posting weather content. You wouldn’t go to a doctor that isn’t really a doctor. Don’t get your weather info from a weather enthusiast that isn’t really a meteorologist.
MODEL OUTPUT BEYOND 7 DAYS… If a “source” is posting deterministic model output (images like the ones attached) that is beyond 7 days out from a given time, it’s probably not a weather source you should listen to at all. Model output is designed to make a forecast. The fact is model output is highly uncertain and HIGHLY variable after the 7 day mark. Let me be clear: There is simply very little skill in forecasting beyond 7 days out.
THANKS TO EVERYONE WHO REACHED OUT… I’ve had roughly 30 questions about this viral image today. I appreciate each person who took the time to tag me or reach out asking if something like this is valid. I am always happy to help determine if info is real or fake and if I don’t know the answer, I’ll do my best to get you an answer.
Have a wonderful Monday evening!