FEW SHOWERS TODAY; RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY… Rain chances are on the rise on this Monday ahead of a few thunderstorms becoming possible on Tuesday morning. There will be a very low-end risk of strong storms well to our northwest today across portions of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The very low-end risk shifts into Alabama and northwest Florida on Tuesday. Rain chances today will be greatest across west Alabama, particularly in Washington, Clarke, Choctaw, and Mobile counties. While a few general thunderstorms are possible today, there is basically no severe weather risk through the evening hours. High temperatures will be well above our climatological normal for this time of year. Most spots will peak in the mid-70s. Another, separate severe weather risk may set up for Friday. Let’s talk details…
ISOLATED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING… 6:55AM EDIT: The Storm Prediction Center has lowered the severe weather risk for Tuesday into the “general thunderstorm” zone with no formal severe weather risk in place. This is because a cold front will approach our area from the northwest. Out ahead of the front, there could be a fairly weak QLCS/squall line of storms that develops and moves across our area from west to east.
TUESDAY STORM TIMING… Storms will move across our region from 6AM to Noon on Tuesday. The risk will end from west to east. There is a high chance that we won’t have any tornado warnings, but “high chance” does not mean guaranteed. There is a very low (not zero!) chance that a tornado warning will be required. Have a way to receive urgent weather warnings on Tuesday morning just in case we happen to have an isolated stronger storm. Most areas should just have heavy downpours of rain at times. Rain will clear out of our area on Tuesday afternoon.
DRIER WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY… Cooler, drier, stable air will filter into Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday as high temperatures drop back into the mid-60s. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Wednesday before clouds increase yet again on Thursday.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON FRIDAY… There is a chance that “this weathermaker” will be stronger and more potent than the first batch of storms earlier in the week. The surface area of low pressure will likely track to our northwest near St. Louis featuring a trailing cold front and a warm front that will lift north across our area. This will allow warm, unstable air to move northward from the Gulf, potentially setting the stage for a severe weather event. It’s too early to give specifics, but the idea is certainly on the table for a few strong storms Friday during the daytime hours. Check back with me here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days for the latest.
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Let me know if you have any specific questions. See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great Monday!