UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE; STORMS ON THURSDAY… There will be at least some chance of rain in each of the next 7 days in addition to a very low-end risk of strong storms on Thursday. Temperatures are set to rise into the low-70s this afternoon as a warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns. Today will not be a classic “all day washout,” but there will be showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms around. We remain in an unsettled, active weather pattern going into the weekend as well. Let’s talk details…
LOW-END RISK OF STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Thursday. Based on my review of the latest model data, I would suggest that this event will probably be on the lower end of the low risk. This means that the overall risk of tornadoes and damaging winds is very low. We still could have a few strong storms around, but the overall severe risk will probably be low to nil.
STORM TIMING THURSDAY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen (a big IF, at this point) they will most likely happen between 1PM and 8PM when there is a good bit of CAPE/instability in place.
RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND… We will continue to see shortwave troughs and disturbances move across our area into the weekend across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will generally be in the low- to mid-70s with morning lows in the 50s. Rain chances will be elevated, especially near coastal areas each day.
See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!