1:53PM 2/28/2019 – RZW Exec

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec members, good afternoon! There is an increasing risk of severe weather setting up on Sunday across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of north and west Alabama, nearly all of Mississippi, parts of southwest Arkansas and northeast Louisiana in their standard, Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, including isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.

RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH… Compared to the severe weather event last weekend that caused multiple tornadoes in north Alabama and north Mississippi, the risk zone is farther to the south this time. This means that the western part of our local area is included in the slightly higher risk zone. At the moment, much of Clarke, Monroe, and Washington counties are included in the Level 2 risk.

Basically, communities along and north of a line from Citronelle to Monroeville to Montgomery to Lanett are included in the Level 2 risk. Keep in mind, this risk zone will likely evolve/change somewhat over the next 48 hours as we get closer to the event and details become more clear.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Looking at the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), it seems like flash flooding impacts will be limited unless we get storms training over the same areas which seems unlikely as of now.

STORM TIMING… Perhaps the most uncertainty with this forecast is in the timing. The weather models have been divergent on this as of late, meaning solutions seem to be getting more uncertain rather than becoming more clear. For now, we will be begin advertising the greatest risk of severe weather being in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

NEXT UPDATE… Since there is a growing potential for a few isolated tornadoes on the western side of our local area, I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you issued by 5PM on Friday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a wonderful Thursday evening!

Testing 123

Leave a Reply