ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; MORE RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are happening on this Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’ve had a mass of rain and storms moving east across our region this morning. Some of the storms have produced loud thunder over the last few hours. There is a very low-end risk of a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing a brief damaging gust of wind or large hail. The overall tornado risk remains near zero today. The big headline today is the rain and the warm temperatures. High temperatures will again be in the mid-70s this afternoon.
INTERMITTENT STORMS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS… Showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream into our region from the west through late morning. There is a chance we could be drier later today, although I’m not comfortable taking rain chances much lower as there could be a few lingering showers around. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day. Again, the risk of severe storms remains very low. Some of the storms may be “loud and proud” with quite a bit of thunder and lightning.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY… We note that the Storm Prediction Center has the entire area under a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone on Friday as well (in addition to the very low-end risk in place for today), meaning an isolated severe storm may happen tomorrow too. Again, anytime we have a low-end, marginal risk, it means that a brief severe storm could happen, but widespread severe weather is not expected. I’ve crunched the numbers: Generally if an area is in a Level 1, low-end risk, about 8 out of 10 times there are no tornado warnings. It’s the 2 out of 10 times of an issuance of a Level 1 risk that feature at least one tornado warning. Big takeaway from this is anytime we have a low-end risk, we need to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings.
MORE RAIN ON SATURDAY & ON SUNDAY… Rain chances will remain elevated (40% and 60%, respectively) this weekend as a stalled frontal boundary just to the north of our area slowly drifts southwest. This, combined with some upper disturbances in the atmosphere moving by, will create enough lift and moisture for a scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures peak in the upper-70s on Saturday. Temperatures will start to fall on Sunday as the cold front moves by and cool, stable air filters in.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the western half our our local area in their Level 2 slight risk zone valid for Sunday, meaning a few strong to potentially severe storms may happen as ahead of the advancing cold front that will bring cooler air into the region. Still too early to know specifics, but there is a chance that damaging winds and isolated tornado may happen in some of the stronger storms. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for updates.
COOL & DRY FOR NEXT WEEK… The latest model guidance continues to suggest that our area will have significantly cooler temperatures next week as an air mass from the north builds in. High temperatures will likely drop into the 50s with morning lows in the 30s by midweek. This setup would largely keep rain/precip/storms away from our area for a few days at minimum.
Let me know if you have any specific questions. See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!