UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE; STORMS ON THURSDAY… There will be at least some chance of rain in each of the next 7 days in addition to a very low-end risk of strong storms on Thursday. Temperatures are set to rise into the low-70s this afternoon as a warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns. Today will not be a classic “all day washout,” but there will be showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms around. We remain in an unsettled, active weather pattern going into the weekend as well. Let’s talk details…

LOW-END RISK OF STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Thursday. Based on my review of the latest model data, I would suggest that this event will probably be on the lower end of the low risk. This means that the overall risk of tornadoes and damaging winds is very low. We still could have a few strong storms around, but the overall severe risk will probably be low to nil.

STORM TIMING THURSDAY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen (a big IF, at this point) they will most likely happen between 1PM and 8PM when there is a good bit of CAPE/instability in place.

RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND… We will continue to see shortwave troughs and disturbances move across our area into the weekend across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will generally be in the low- to mid-70s with morning lows in the 50s. Rain chances will be elevated, especially near coastal areas each day.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING COASTAL ALABAMA… If you’re reading this post, odds are you’ve been awakened by loud thunder or the sound of heavy rain. Showers and thunderstorms are moving into Mobile and Baldwin counties from the west. This mass of rain and storms will spread eastward across our region over the next 3-4 hours.

Don’t be surprised to hear some thunder and see lightning flashes! Lightning output has been quite higher than some of our recent rain/storm events.

Widespread severe weather is not expected. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. See you then!

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SHOWERS MOVING EAST… Several light to moderate rain showers continue to move eastward across the region. As of 9:05PM, the heaviest shower is happening near Centerville, Travis Bridge, and Cohassett in Conecuh County. These showers will continue to drift eastward overnight. More spotty showers (and potentially a few thunderstorms) are expected on Wednesday.

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COLD TEMPS LIKELY IN EARLY MARCH… The latest 8-14 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center strongly suggests a very high probability that early March will feature temperatures far below average across much of the continental United States. When you see a forecast image like this with much of the country blanketed in below average temperatures, odds are higher that the forecast will verify.

CAUTION WHEN VIEWING LONG RANGE DATA… Longtime viewers and readers know that I put very little trust in any weather model and forecast data beyond the “7 day out” mark. The one extended forecast that is generalized and pretty much on target is the Climatological Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook. This forecast takes into account data from multiple models and is generated by trained meteorologists (as opposed to raw model output).

WARMER IN THE SHORT-TERM… Temperatures are headed UP for Wednesday, Thursday, into Friday as a warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico takes hold of our weather pattern.

STORMS ON THURSDAY… A few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone for much of our area. I’ll have a full video/discussion about this posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. See you then!

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SCATTERED SHOWERS… Light to moderate rain showers continue across south Alabama and northwest Florida as we get set for the 3PM hour. The heaviest rain at the moment is happening in northern Monroe County near Tunnel Springs and Beatrice.

Showers will continue to increase slightly in coverage over the next few hours.

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RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY; RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY… Keep the rain jackets and umbrellas handy today and over the next few days as showers and thunderstorms return. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day and rain chances will be highest today later this afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-60s today. Enough atmospheric instability will be in place late tonight into Wednesday to allow development of occasional embedded thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected today, however.

LOW-END, LEVEL 1 RISK TO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO HAIL RISK… If you see maps circulating today indicating a low-end, marginal severe weather risk for coastal stretches of Alabama, please know that this is because of a low-end risk of hail happening in the stronger thunderstorms. The tornado risk remains at basically zero. The Storm Prediction Center issues daily convective outlooks for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Again, basically NO tornado risk today. The risk zone is in place due to the potential for hail in any stronger storms that can fire up near the Alabama coast.

SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY… More rain is expected on Wednesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but there could be a few embedded thunderstorms throughout the day. Temperatures will creep up into the 70s by mid-afternoon.

MORE RAIN & STORMS TO END THE WEEK… Goodness! Rain really has been the word as of late and unfortunately we maintain high rain chances Thursday into Friday. There will be a cold front that approaches our local area late in the day on Friday that could provide enough support to potentially cause a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app about this. Be sure to check back with me later this week for the very latest information.

RAIN CHANCES PROBABLY TO GO HIGHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK… We will likely have to adjust rain chances higher for the latter half of the weekend into early next week for our upcoming forecasts as models have been trending much more wet for Sunday into Monday. For now, we’ll go with slightly cooler temperatures after the passage of a cold front in the first half of the weekend.

See all of the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video that will be available shortly in the RedZone Weather app…

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