6:56AM March 1, 2019

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… There is an increasing risk of severe weather setting up on Sunday across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of north and west Alabama, nearly all of Mississippi, parts of southwest Arkansas and northeast Louisiana in their standard, Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, including isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Before we get there, a warm, wet (at times) Friday and Saturday are ahead. Let’s look at details…

SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY & ON SATURDAY… No severe weather issues are expected today or on Saturday, but you will need to keep the umbrellas and rain gear handy. Rain will be possible at times over the next 2 days. High temperatures will remain well above our climatological norms for this time of year – most spots will peak around 76° each afternoon. We won’t have an “all day washout” on Friday or on Saturday, but there will be scattered showers around.

SUNDAY – RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH… Compared to the severe weather event last weekend that caused multiple tornadoes in north Alabama and north Mississippi, the risk zone is farther to the south this time. This means that the western part of our local area is included in the slightly higher risk zone. At the moment, much of Clarke, Monroe, and Washington counties are included in the Level 2 risk.

SUNDAY – THE LEVEL 2 RISK ZONE… Basically, communities along and north of a line from Citronelle to Monroeville to Montgomery to Lanett are included in the Level 2 risk. Keep in mind, this risk zone will likely evolve/change somewhat over the next 48 hours as we get closer to the event and details become more clear. The following local communities are included in the Level 2 risk zone: Thomasville, Chatom, Jackson, Leroy, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Monroeville, Mexia, Beatrice, Perdue Hill, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Sunflower, Wagerville, Millry, Frankville, St. Stephens, Citronelle. We also note that many more places in north and central Alabama are included: Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, Demopolis, Selma, Prattville, Butler, Camden, Hamilton, Cullman, Livingston, Jasper, Oneonta, Alexander City, and Roanoke.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms on Sunday. Looking at the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), it seems like flash flooding impacts will be limited unless we get storms training over the same areas which seems unlikely as of now.

STORM TIMING… Perhaps the most uncertainty with this forecast is in the timing. The weather models have been divergent on this over the last day or so, meaning solutions seem to be getting more uncertain rather than becoming more clear. For now, our best estimate is that the greatest risk of severe weather being in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

COLD FRONT MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY… After the storms end late Sunday evening, a strong cold front will move through south Alabama and northwest Florida, ushering in cooler, drier, more stable air. High temperatures next week will be BELOW our climatological norms, peaking in the 50s mostly with overnight lows near the freezing mark.

APP ALERTS… The time to be prepared for severe weather is not right before the storm, but instead as far in advance as possible. The free RedZone Weather app is a great way for you to receive urgent weather alerts that you can customize to your liking. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to pick which alerts you’d like to get from me.

I’ve got all the details for you in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Be sure to check back with me on Saturday morning for the latest on the Sunday severe weather potential. Enjoy your weekend!

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