STRONGER STORMS LIKELY TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND; LEVEL 2 RISK LOCALLY… The core of the severe weather risk this weekend will likely happen across northwest Alabama and north Mississippi where the greater “combination of severe weather ingredients” come together. The tornado risk will very likely set up in those places. Much of the state of Alabama remains in the Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk to potentially see a few strong to severe storms on Saturday into Sunday morning. For south Alabama and northwest Florida, the greatest risk of seeing a strong to severe storms will likely happen along and west of Interstate 65 across parts of west Alabama. Let’s look at details…
LEVEL 2 RISK ZONE FOR WEST ALABAMA… If you’re in Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, Monroe, Marengo, Wilcox, Conecuh, or Butler counties, you have the greatest risk locally of experiencing a strong to severe storm on Saturday. These are the counties involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe storms could happen. The concerns in these areas are damaging straight line winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Places in the Level 2 risk zone include Monroeville, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Camden, Greenville, Beatrice, and Tunnel Springs.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR OTHER ALABAMA LOCALES TO THE NORTH… We also note that parts of north and Central Alabama remain involved in the Level 2 risk zone including (but not limited to) places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Huntsville, Jasper, Hamilton, Russellville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Decatur, Moulton, Athens, Demopolis, Selma, Centreville, Clanton and Livingston.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR ALL OTHER LOCAL AREAS… For communities along, south, and east of Interstate 65, you’re included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone meaning severe weather is not nearly as likely this weekend. Could a severe storm happen in these areas? Yes, but the risk is much lower. This zone includes places like Brewton, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Mobile, Pensacola, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Daphne, Fairhope, Bay Minette, Milton, Century, Molino, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Destin, Crestview, and Fort Walton Beach.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR LOCAL AREA: SQUALL LINE… The severe weather risk is most likely to manifest in the form of a strong to potentially severe line of thunderstorms that approaches our area from the northwest on Saturday evening. Generally, in a QLCS/squall line situation, that means that the risk of damaging wind gusts may be the greatest concern with a lower-end tornado risk.
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My next video will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. See you then!