TORNADOES POSSIBLE TO OUR NORTH TODAY; SEVERE WEATHER RISK VERY LOW FOR LOCAL AREA… We start this Saturday with good news and bad news. The good news is ALL of south Alabama or northwest Florida has been removed from all of the formal severe weather risk zones for today. The bad news is the tornado risk has slightly increased across north Mississippi, north Alabama, and the western half of Tennessee where a few strong tornadoes may be possible later today. A Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone is in place for those areas. Rain chances locally have also been slashed pretty dramatically. Rain and thunderstorms will become more of an issue for us tomorrow. Let’s talk details…
LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY… We’ll call it only a 20% chance of rain for any given point across our region today. Most of the rain will happen across north Alabama and north Mississippi. I do think that rain will become more widespread on Sunday, however. There also could be a few strong storms in the mix tomorrow. More about that below. High temperatures on this Saturday will peak in the upper-70s by 3PM. Some spots may make a run at 80-81°. Rain chances will be greatest today across west Alabama after the lunch hour. There could be a few loud thunderstorms around this afternoon and this evening. Again, severe weather is now pretty much off the table for our local area until Sunday morning as there is no formal severe weather risk in place for our area today.
LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH… I am increasingly concerned about the potential for a few significant tornadoes later today across northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The Storm Prediction Center has included these areas in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone because of this growing risk. In Alabama, the following communities are included in the Level 3 risk zone: Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, and Hamilton. We note that Tupelo (MS), Jackson (TN), and Oxford (MS) are also included in the Level 3 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 & LEVEL 1 RISK TO THE NORTH TOO… Many other communities along and west of Interstate 59 in north and northwest Alabama are included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone today, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible in those areas as well. This includes places like Decatur, Huntsville, Jasper, Double Springs, Cullman, Athens, Fayette, Moulton, and Aliceville. The Level 1, marginal risk zone is in place for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Oneonta, Livingston, and surrounding areas. Vast majority of Alabama (and all of northwest Florida) has been clipped out of the severe weather risk zones today and included in the normal, “General Thunderstorms” zone.
RAIN & A FEW STORMS ON SUNDAY… Rain chances will rise on Sunday as a cold front slows down and stalls on top of our area. We note that while the Storm Prediction Center has much of our local area in their Level 1 risk zone for a severe weather potential, there is a notable lack of “forcing” that could potentially cause severe weather. The tornado risk Sunday will likely be near zero (if not AT zero) for many areas. The Level 1 risk is mainly on the board by SPC due to a VERY low-end risk of damaging straight line winds that could develop in any stronger storms that happen. Vast majority of us will have rain and general thunderstorms on Sunday with no major issues. High temperatures will again peak in the upper-70s.
RAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY… The influence of a stalled frontal boundary will hang tough on Monday with another round of showers and thunderstorms across our region. For now, severe weather parameters remain low. We will need the rain jackets throughout the day most likely. Temperatures will be in the 60s and low-70s throughout the day.
WARM, MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY… We get a brief break from the rain on Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week. Mostly cloudy skies are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures in the upper-70s in the afternoon hours. I wouldn’t be shocked if a widespread swath of the area hit 80° on Wednesday afternoon.
MORE STORMS LATE NEXT WEEK… Our weather pattern looks increasingly unsettled as we head into Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will rise and we could have some storms around each day as high temps remain in the 70s. Too early to speculate whether severe weather will be an issue.
APP… I’ll have updates throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to set up app alerts by visiting the Alerts tab in the lower right corner and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button.
Have a great Saturday!