TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY A.M. ACROSS SOUTH AL & NW FL… The overall confidence in our forecast continues to increase: Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging gusts of wind will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday morning. The system will advance from west to east with impacts potentially starting in parts of west Alabama as early as 11PM Saturday night. The system should clear out to our east by 2PM at the absolute latest. While you probably have seen alarmist-type posts suggesting the potential for multiple long-track, significant tornadoes across parts of Alabama, I am not at all ready to suggest that as a possibility this evening. The forecast remains good and on target in that there will be a potential for tornadoes, but the data just doesn’t suggest a widespread violent tornado risk just yet. Could that change? Yes, and you definitely need to check back with me on Saturday morning for the very latest. If a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. It only takes one, which is why we are on guard this weekend. Let’s talk about a few details…
SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO & DAMAGING WIND RISK INLAND… Tornadoes are possible areawide on Sunday morning, but the core risk seems to be shaping up across our inland counties. If you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, or Washington counties (or points north into central Alabama), you have a slightly higher tornado risk as this line of severe storms moves by on Sunday. That statement does NOT mean that tornadoes won’t happen elsewhere/closer to the coast, but the likelihood of a tornado is greater for inland areas. These counties include places like Thomasville, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, and Chapman. Places just to the north of these areas like Selma, Camden, Pine Hill, Sweet Water, Butler, Pennington, Linden, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Tuscaloosa, Northport, and Centreville also have an enhanced risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
NEW: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since our midday update. The system seems to be moving a bit faster, based on the latest model data. We have bumped up our 12 hour window from 2AM Sunday to 2PM, with the core risk being 5AM to 1PM. We note storms could happen before or after this timeframe, but that is the MOST likely window. Please keep in mind that is the “severe weather timing” and not RAIN timing. Rain is likely intermittently long before that timeframe. Scattered showers and storms under severe limits are possible on Saturday during the daytime and evening hours. The severe weather risk will ramp up after 10PM.
WE ALL NEED MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET TORNADO WARNINGS… I cannot stress this enough: You need to have multiple ways to be able to receive tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings *before* you go to sleep Saturday night. Nocturnal tornadoes are statistically quite deadly. NOAA Weather Radio is a great choice. There are good smartphone apps available designed to alert you in dangerous weather situations. Make sure you have Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) turned ON for each of your smartphones. Our free RedZone Weather app is a great supplement to all these things. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to download the free app. Once you have it downloaded, be sure to go into the Alerts tab and set up the specific alerts you want to receive straight from me.
HEADED TO A-DAY IN AUBURN OR TUSCALOOSA? READ THIS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info. Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms. Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 20% chance of rain.
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONFUSION… The Storm Prediction Center is the national agency charged with issuing convective outlooks. These are the outlooks you see every, single day in my products. Our local National Weather Service forecast office in Mobile, AL does a great job of showing graphics that are consistent with SPC. The National Weather Service local office in Birmingham (and Mobile as of this afternoon) has recently started issuing their own “risk graphics.” While SPC maintains only east Alabama in the Level 3 zone, the local NWS offices in Mobile and Birmingham have opted to do their own thing and put their parts of their respective coverage areas in a Level 3/orange risk area. It is a HIGHLY confusing situation and I’ve had a plethora of private messages about it all day. This (ridiculously confusing) situation, along with several others that have happened this spring, have prompted me to reevaluate our current system. We will do that reevaluation this summer after the current severe weather season winds down. When two agencies under NOAA (NWS & SPC) can’t agree/be consistent with their messaging, that is a significant problem that warrants a significant solution on our part. Let me know if you have any thoughts! We need to “be better” as a weather enterprise.
BE “WEATHER AWARE” THIS WEEKEND… Don’t let your guard down this weekend until after our severe weather risk passes on Sunday. We all need to have away to get the urgent weather warnings, especially Sunday morning when the main risk happens. I’ll have updates as needed this weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of app) and then read the alert descriptions so you can pick the ones you want to receive. All of our alerts are currently handcrafted by me. Unlike other sources, we won’t send you a push notification unless there is something you need to know.
NEXT UPDATE… My next update here on Facebook will be posted by 7AM on Saturday morning with the very latest information. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app or at redzoneweather.com for more thoughts.