2:58PM 4/15/2019 – RZW Exec

NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES BY THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We are looking ahead to our next storm system that will move across Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. For now, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible as an eastward-advancing line of storms moves by. These are some of the details we will be discussing publicly over the next 24 hours… Please let me know if you have questions or need decision support as this event draws closer.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN P.M. HOURS ON THURSDAY… While Thursday morning will feature increasing wind from the south as our area enters the humid, unstable warm sector out ahead of the advancing cold front, the severe weather issues are MOST likely to happen in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

TIMING OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY… 2PM to 11PM seems to be the best estimate of a “severe weather timing” window at the moment, although we note that could change as more model data comes in over the next 48 hours. We all will need a way to get urgent tornado warnings on Thursday, particularly after the lunch hour. The good news is the latest trends suggest this will be a daytime/evening event and NOT an overnight event unlike our last round of severe weather that happened on Sunday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY… While early model indications point to a system that will produce a squall line of strong to severe storms (QLCS – quasi-linear convective system as it’s known in the meteorology world), it’s too early to know whether supercell thunderstorms will be involved out ahead of the main line. Regardless, isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will clearly be the two main hazards across our region as this quick hitting system moves by.

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