RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN EVENING… Storms are happening now (as of 7:15PM Friday) across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida, but our focus is clearly on Saturday evening when a more potent round of storms will likely move across our region from west to east. Rain and storms may kick off as early as the late morning hours before increasing in coverage throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The severe weather risk will be greatest in the evening hours from 4PM to 10PM Saturday. Check out the attached projected radar animation for Saturday to see one idea of specifics. Let’s look at a few details…
THUNDER & LIGHTNING ACROSS THE REGION NOW… General (non-severe) thunderstorms have bubbled up across the area on this Friday evening. At the moment, heavier downpours of rain are happening near Monroeville, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Repton, Laurel Hill, Wagerville, and Millry. These storms are drifting northeast. I’m hearing quite a bit of loud thunder at our RedZone Weather studio in the northern part of Brewton, AL. “Loud and proud” storms, but the “bark is worse than the bite” at this point. Severe weather is NOT expected tonight or in the morning hours of Saturday. Here is a quick check of the current radar view as of 7:30PM…
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday evening. The core timeframe for severe weather will be 4PM to 11PM. Rain will be possible before and after this timeframe. While the main concern will be damaging straight line winds, there also will be a potential for hail and a few tornadoes. We note the tornado risk remains LOW, but not completely at zero. This will be a situation where scattered severe storms will be possible. Most of us will have a round of heavy rain, lightning, thunder, and gusty winds as a line of storms moves in from the west. Again, the severe issues should be scattered and not widespread. We all will need a way to get the warnings on Saturday evening, however, as a few tornado warnings may be possible.
SPECIFICS ON SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Rain will be increasingly likely after midday on Saturday. Storms will develop across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and move into west Alabama most likely in the 4PM to 8PM time frame. Storms will slide eastward into south central Alabama and northwest Florida in the 6PM to 10PM time frame. Main concern is damaging wind gusts, but isolated tornadoes and hail will be possible too.
STORM MODES ON SATURDAY… The main feature we will be watching on Saturday afternoon and evening is a developing line of storms across Louisiana and Mississippi. This will probably manifest in the form of a QLCS/squall line, although we note that bowing segments will be possible along the line. Those bowing segments are where severe storms capable of downing a few trees will be possible. We will also need to watch any storms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of the main complex of storms. Any of these discrete storms that can ramp up to severe levels could produce tornadoes. There still is LOW confidence on if/when discete supercell thunderstorms will be possible although we note the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned this possibility in some of their later discussions.
CANCEL PLANS? PROBABLY NOT… I get a lot of questions (and I appreciate your trust/interest!!) about whether someone should cancel evening plans because of storms moving in. My answer in this case is “probably not.” This is a Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. That means that MOST (aka not all, but most) of us should be okay with no major issues. If heavy rain and/or lightning is a concern for your event, I would definitely have an indoor backup plan ready.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Unlike most weather apps, ALL of the content in the app is handcrafted, including all push notifications. Check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a special Saturday morning update available here on Facebook and in the RZW app as we continue to monitor the severe weather potential setting up for Saturday evening!