MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD: 5-7” OF RAIN POSSIBLE… Talk about a weather pattern flip! We’ve got a major rain event setting up for the weekend into early next week as Gulf moisture streams in from the south, paving the way for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday. While this rain is MUCH needed, I am growing a bit concerned about the possibility of flash flooding IF storms train over the same areas this weekend. The good news is this will be a soaking rain, but likely WITHOUT a big risk of convective issues like tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. Let’s look at details…
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW… There actually are a few showers and thunderstorms happening right now (as of 7:30PM on Tuesday) near Castleberry, Evergreen, Nymph, Jay Villa, L Pond, and Johnsonville in southern Conecuh County. Another lone storm is noted near Gosport and Claiborne near the Alabama River near the Clarke/Monroe County line near the Alabama River Pulp mill. These storms are slowly drifting northward.
SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… The big rain happens this weekend, but not before a few scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday and Thursday. These will be diurnal, pop-up storms capable of producing very heavy downpours of rain in localized areas. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern. You know the drill by now: “When thunder roars, go indoors.”
NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Deep tropical moisture will surge into our area from the south on Friday, meaning numerous showers and thunderstorms will become likely. 1-2” of rain will be possible Friday, with isolated higher amounts. If you have outdoor events scheduled for Friday or Saturday, I would definitely have an indoor backup ready!
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY… The axis of moisture that parks over our area really won’t be moving much Saturday or Sunday. I expect rain to progressively end on Monday, but not before some areas pick up 5, 6, or maybe even 7 inches of rain near the immediate beaches. We note that NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has parts of the Alabama coastline in their 7” contour zone, meaning it is plausible to have 6-8” of rain near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Dauphin Island before this rain event ends early next week.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOW UNLIKELY… Some good news to pass along this evening! The National Hurricane Center says that INVEST 91L, the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) now only has a 20% chance of developing into a named tropical storm. This is actually the system that will ultimately be responsible for flinging in some of the Gulf moisture from the South this weekend. Again, it won’t be a tropical storm or hurricane when the moisture arrives here.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app if you haven’t already to keep up with the rain/storm event this weekend. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive.
Let me know if you have any questions. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. Have a nice Tuesday evening!