HEAVY RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; WET WEEKEND AHEAD… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on this Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida as deep, tropical moisture surges in from the south. You’ll need the rain gear handy all day and into the weekend as we have a steady barrage of rain and thunderstorms set to move in. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) numbers support upwards of 7 to 10 (!) inches of rain for parts of coastal Alabama through Monday. The atmospheric setup through the weekend is remarkably opposite from the weather pattern we’ve been in over the last few weeks. Every location locally will almost certainly have multiple rounds of rain this weekend. We note that the Storm Prediction Center has included parts of west Alabama in their Levels 1 and 2 risk zones for today as a few, brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out in the stronger storms. Scattered storms will likely be a staple of our forecast into next week as well. Let’s look at a few details…
RAIN AND STORMS LIKELY TODAY… Scattered showers are noted on radar this morning across the region. I expect areas of rain and storms to increase in number across our area throughout the day. If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this evening and rain is a concern, you definitely should consider rescheduling. I suspect that youth baseball games/practices today will be cancelled in many locales due to all the rain around throughout the day and into the evening. Lightning will be a concern in some of the stronger storms today. As I said yesterday and in previous days, you know the drill: “When thunder roars, go indoors.” We lost a massive amount of studio equipment due to a massive lightning strike a few weeks ago and the recovery has been challenging. Take lightning seriously! High temperatures today will be confined into the 80s as cloud cover keeps us much cooler compared to the last few weeks.
LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… Just after this video was produced, the Storm Prediction Center upped parts of west Alabama into their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone due to a slightly higher risk of a brief tornado or two in any of the stronger storms that happen today. Locally, the extreme western part of Clarke County and much of Washington and Choctaw counties are included in the Level 2 risk zone. This includes locales like Millry, Coffeeville, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Gilbertown, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, and Chatom.
LEVEL 1 LOW-END SEVERE RISK FOR WESTERN HALF OF AREA… We note that several communities are included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for today. These areas probably won’t have severe weather issues, but the risk is NOT zero. This risk zone includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Monroeville, Uriah, Chrysler, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope, Point Clear, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Gulf Shores, Mobile, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Citronelle, Mount Vernon, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, and Wilmer.
QPF NUMBERS ARE VERY HIGH… Be sure to see the video for more details about this. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast numbers from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center indicate 3 to 10 inches of rain could happen across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Again, please see the graphic in the video. Here is a select few projected rainfall totals over the next 5 days…
Mobile: 5 to 8”
Eastern Shore: 6 to 9”
Alabama Beaches: 7 to 10”
Dauphin Island: 10 to 12”
Pensacola: 6 to 9”
Washington County: 4 to 6”
Clarke County: 3 to 5”
Monroe County: 3 to 5”
Conecuh County: 3 to 5”
Escambia County, AL: 3 to 5”
Butler County: 3 to 5”
Covington County: 3 to 5”
Wiregrass/SE AL: 2 to 4”
Walton County: 4 to 6”
Okaloosa County: 4 to 6”
Santa Rosa County: 4 to 7”
North Escambia County, FL: 4 to 7”
North Baldwin County, AL: 5 to 7”
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY… The fire hose of moisture is set to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to our area this weekend. If you have an outdoor event sensitive to rain scheduled for Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, I can’t stress enough how important it is that you have an indoor backup plan. That statement will be most true for areas near the immediate Alabama beaches where 7 to 10 inches of rain may happen. Elsewhere across the region, we’ll have rain amounts of 2 to 7 inches (in total over the next 5 days). This will likely be the wettest weekend we’ve had in quite some time. High temperatures will be much lower compared to the last few weeks. Most spots will struggle to hit 85° this weekend in the afternoon hours.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ISSUES NOT EXPECTED… While there will be at least some risk of flash flooding issues if storms train over the same areas, I am not expecting widespread tornado, damaging wind, or large hail issues this weekend. Have a way to keep tabs on the radar, especially if you’re concerned about heavy rain. Systems like the area of low pressure moving by to our west can sometimes bring some surprises, and while I am not expecting widespread severe/convective weather issues, I would not be surprised if we have a strong storm or two before the end of the weekend.
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK… After the moisture axis and heavy rain ends on Monday into Tuesday of the upcoming week, we will need to maintain a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms into the middle part of the upcoming week as pop up storms will be around in the afternoon and evening hours of each day. High temperatures will settle back into the 90s with morning lows around 70 degrees.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!