6:53AM June 18, 2019

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON; STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Scattered thunderstorms will likely pop up late this morning into the early afternoon hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The storms that fire up today will probably be well below severe limits, yet heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be concerns in any of the storms that can become slightly stronger. Rain chances will be slightly higher over the next few days, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours in the core heating hours. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low-90s. Thursday looks to be our most active weather day in the short term. Let’s look at details…

MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY… Another round of pop-up showers and thunderstorms will pop up in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday. High temperatures will again be in the low-90s with morning lows around 70.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY… Due to a passing shortwave trough to our west, there is a small chance that we could have a few strong to severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. Most of us probably won’t have severe weather issues, but most of us will have thunderstorms nearby throughout the day. The greatest chance of a stronger storm happening will be over west Alabama, particularly west of the Alabama River. This would include much of Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Marengo, and Choctaw counties in our local area.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY… Damaging straight line winds and hail will be the main concerns in the stronger storms that fire up on Thursday. It’s so often the case in the summer that the tornado risk in our local area remains low in severe weather events, and that is the case in this situation as well. The overall tornado risk will remain very, very low if not zero in most spots. Damaging wind gusts can sometimes be as serious as a tornado, however. The big takeaway here is that we will need a way to get urgent weather warnings on Thursday. Take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously!

LOWER (NOT ZERO) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND… Friday will feature another afternoon and evening round of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday, however, will likely be drier across the region with only an isolated shower or storm being possible. We’ll call it partly cloudy for both Saturday and Sunday with a 20% chance of rain. Temperatures will soar into the upper-90s in each of the afternoon hours.

TROPICS ARE QUIET… No tropical storm formation is expected in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean over the next 5-7 days, per the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center.

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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