MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT; FEW STORMS THIS EVENING… Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain quite sparse on this Tuesday as high pressure remains in dominant control of our weather pattern. High temperatures will peak in the mid-90s by 3PM. There is good news to report in the tropics as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea probably won’t develop into a tropical storm as it continues to move toward The Bahamas. Let’s look at your forecast details…

FEW STORMS DURING P.M. HOURS… Isolated, small thunderstorms will likely bubble up this afternoon across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will be very few and far between today. Yesterday we had a few storms over southern Clarke County near Jackson. Sunday we had small, isolated storms near Navarre and Milton in Santa Rosa County. Where will storms pop up today? I can’t answer that specifically, but I can just about guarantee there will be a storm or two on radar by 2PM. Vast majority of us will remain dry. The severe weather risk remains at or near zero for today and tomorrow.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND… Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous as we go into the Alabama and northwest Florida weekend. There will be plenty of sunshine each day, especially in the morning hours. This means we won’t be dealing with “all day washout” type days. The storms will be scattered in nature across the region. Most of the storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours.

INVEST 95L BARELY HOLDING ON; DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY… The tropical wave currently near Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico is barely hanging on to life. The National Hurricane Center indicates that development probabilities have dropped to a near 10% chance as we go into the weekend, indicating development of this system is probably not going to happen. There still will be heavy rain across parts of The Bahamas and perhaps south Florida this weekend because of this passing area of low pressure.

20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a tropical wave currently situated just off the western coast of Africa. While development is not expected over the next 2 days, the tropical wave may have a chance to strengthen to a tropical storm this weekend as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. This system is still far away from land and poses no immediate threat to any land areas over the next 5 days. Something to watch, not something to stress over at this point. I’ll keep you posted.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a wonderful day!

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SMALL STORMS NEAR JACKSON… Isolated small showers and thunderstorms have popped up near Salitpa, Toddtown, and Jackson in southern Clarke County. These storms are slowly drifting south-southwest. Isolated downpours will be possible shortly near Jackson, Leroy, and the U.S. Highway 43 corridor south of Grove Hill and north of Wagerville.

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FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; TROPICAL UPDATE… Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are likely to happen this afternoon across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida, especially closer to the coast. Rain chances for any given spot remain at 10% or less, meaning vast majority of us will remain dry throughout the day. Rain chances are slated to increase slightly over the next several days, but that is NOT because of the tropical system we are monitoring. The storms that pop up locally will be seabreeze-induced. Here are the details about the tropics…

INVEST 95L IN THE CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest there is a 10-20% chance of a tropical storm developing in the east-central Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic Ocean near/over The Bahamas this week as a tropical wave lifts to the northwest toward the Florida Peninsula. This tropical wave has been branded as INVEST 95L.

95L: BIG RAIN AHEAD FOR PUERTO RICO… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

95L: UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.

95L: IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

See all the details and graphics in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a nice Monday!

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TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center says there is a low-end (20%) chance that tropical storm formation may happen later this week into the upcoming weekend near The Bahamas and south Florida as a tropical wave approaches from the southeast. The system has been designated INVEST 95L. Early model guidance points to this system potentially developing and moving rapidly northeast into the open waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, although it is entirely too early to know with confidence whether that will, indeed, happen. Here are the headlines this evening…

IMPRESSIVE ‘LOOK’ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.

IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. See you then!

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