MAJOR HURRICANE DORIAN PLOWS TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA; HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAHAMAS… If you or someone you know lives along the eastern coast of Florida from Jacksonville southward to Miami, it is beyond critical that you and your family get prepared for what could be a direct impact from category 4+ Hurricane Dorian early next week! Dorian has strengthened into a major hurricane today with maximum winds of 125 mph as of 8PM. Rapid intensification is happening right now, and Dorian will probably become a category 4 hurricane in the next few hours. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to suggest that Dorian will move toward the Florida Peninsula, slow down considerably, then take a sharp, right, northerly turn at or just after landfall. Right now, the NHC forecast calls for Dorian to be a high-end, very dangerous category 4 hurricane at landfall. There is a chance Dorian could be a bit stronger (cat. 5) or a bit weaker (cat. 3), but that really doesn’t matter – This will be a very dangerous, potentially life threatening hurricane landfall for parts of eastern Florida. High wind, extreme rain amounts in excess of 20” in total, flooding, tornadoes, and deadly storm surge will all be concerns. IF the current forecast verifies (and that still if a big IF), impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be limited. Let’s talk details…
FRIDAY EVENING – POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… There is a growing chance that south Alabama and northwest Florida will never have to deal with the significant impacts of Hurricane Dorian. We are, by no means, “out of the woods” just yet but the data has been very, very encouraging for our area in that the core of Hurricane Dorian is increasingly likely to stay well to our east in the days ahead. This will probably be a terrible situation for parts of the Florida Peninsula, particularly on the eastern side near the Atlantic coast, but I have zero model runs to suggest big impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida as of 1PM CDT on Friday. Could that change? Yes. However, each hour that passes seems to “firm up” the idea that Dorian remains east of our area. We must keep diligently monitoring trends. This isn’t over yet, but the trends are GOOD for now.
NEW: 7PM FRIDAY ADVISORY ON HURRICANE DORIAN… The National Hurricane Center has just issued Advisory #26A at 7PM CDT for Hurricane Dorian. Maximum winds have increased to 125 mph near the center of Dorian this afternoon. Minimum central pressure is down to 950 (!) millibars. Dorian is centered near 25.3 North and 71.0 West. The hurricane is now moving west-northwest at approximately 9 miles per hour.
NEW: HURRICANE WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS… A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas, not including Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably later this evening or on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Below is some good review information from my previous posts that remains right on target…
MAJOR IMPACTS FOR FLORDA PENINSULA… The magnitude of specific impacts from Hurricane Dorian for the Florida Peninsula will depend largely on where the specific center of the system moves in the days ahead, right up until the point of potential landfall. In addition to 140+ mph winds in coastal areas, very heavy rain and flooding will be a major concern. This concern will be exacerbated if Dorian slows down or stalls over any given area in the Florida Peninsula. 10-15”+ of rain could happen in isolated spots, and those numbers may have to be adjusted higher over the next few days. Depending on the exact track of Dorian, tornadoes could also be a concern. Generally areas along and east of the center of the circulation of a hurricane have the worst and most frequent tornado issues. Storm surge and coastal flooding will also be major concerns.
EXTENSIVE DORIAN IMPACTS LIKELY IN PARTS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
My next video update will be posted Saturday by late morning. Plenty more updates this afternoon will be posted in the RedZone Weather app tonight and on Saturday morning. Have a good evening!