7:15AM September 7, 2019

HEAT ADVISORY TODAY: 110° HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY… The entire local area is under a Heat Advisory this (Saturday) afternoon and on Sunday afternoon as hot temperatures and very high heat index values are expected. While the thermometer will probably be in the upper-90s or near 100°, when the humidity is factored in, heat index values will be near 110° in many spots this afternoon. QUITE hot! Mostly sunny skies are expected today and on Sunday with a few passing cumulus clouds. Rain chances today remain near zero, but there will likely be a few storms around on Sunday in the afternoon and evening hours. We continue to watch an active Atlantic basin with four “tropical hotspots” to report this morning. Let’s look at details…

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… More forecast details, including a look at the tropics and next week, are below the college football forecasts (also below).

ALABAMA VS. NEW MEXICO STATE… Alabama will host the New Mexico State Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa in their home opener today at 3:00PM. The game will be televised on the SEC Network. The game is set to start in the peak heating hour of the day when temperatures will be around 97°. Couple the humidity with that and you get a heat index value of 104-107°. Full sunshine is expected with no rain issues in Tuscaloosa today.

AUBURN VS. TULANE… The Auburn Tigers will host the Tulane Green Wave at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn today. The game kicks off at 6:30PM on ESPN2. Temperatures at 6:30 should be in the 89-92° range. Mostly sunny skies are expected. Rain chances remain very low (0-10% chance range) for now.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. JACKSON STATE… The South Alabama Jaguars kick off at 6PM this evening in Mobile. Full sunshine and clear skies are expected for the game with temperatures starting out near 90°. No rain issues, but it’s going to be quite hot! The game can be watched online on the ESPN+ streaming service.

TROY IS OFF THIS WEEK… The Troy Trojans are not playing football this weekend. The next Troy game is against Southern Miss on Saturday, September 14 in Troy. The forecast for Troy for this weekend features lots of sunshine with high temperatures in the upper-90s.

FEW STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING… There will be so much heat content in the atmosphere on Sunday locally that a few showers and storms will likely bubble up. We’ll call it a 20-30% chance of rain for now. Storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected. Keep in mind, a heat advisory will be in place on Sunday. Air temperatures will peak near 100° with heat index values near 110° in the peak heating hours.

P.M. STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances will rise into the 40-50% range. These will be the pulse thunderstorms that are very common around here in the summer months. Severe weather is not expected. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper-90s.

HOT WEEK AHEAD WITH SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES… One of the questions I’m getting a lot these days is, “When will we get our first cold front?” The answer is probably no time in the immediate future. I see nothing that suggests colder air is on the way, unfortunately. Temperatures will remain above our climatological norms for this time of year this week. High temperatures are slated to be in the mid- to upper-90s with morning lows around 72°. Plenty of sunshine is expected with the occasional pop-up storms in the afternoon and evening hours this week.

HURRICANE DORIAN TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY… Hurricane Dorian made a brief landfall early Friday morning near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Dorian is now a weakening category 1 hurricane that is preparing to transition to a powerful extratropical storm in about 24 hours. Rare hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Nova Scotia in Canada with hurricane watches up for Prince Edward Island and parts of Newfoundland. Hurricanes in the maritime provinces of Canada are not unprecedented, but they are fairly rare. The good news is there will be no more significant Dorian impacts for the United States. The last advisory on this vicious storm is finally in sight!

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WELL AWAY FROM LAND… Tropical Storm Gabrielle weakened yesterday before strengthening last evening. Maximum sustained winds in Gabrielle are at 60 mph. The system is expected to become a hurricane in the days ahead. No land impacts are expected from Gabrielle, however. The storm will likely recurve to the northeast in a few days. If we have to have a tropical storm, these are the ones we like: NO land impacts!

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF ANTILLES… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a very low chance (10%) of a weak tropical wave becoming a tropical storm as it moves northwest toward the Lesser Antilles in the next 5 days. The latest model runs do NOT develop this system into a tropical storm. Odds remain low, as of now, that this system is able to develop because of high amounts of atmospheric shear in the area. Good news!

TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM… NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands this morning. This is a more vigorous tropical wave that has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead as it moves westward. Nothing to worry about for now, but we will need to keep an eye on this system in the next week or so as it makes its trek across the Atlantic Ocean. Some models ramp it up to hurricane intensity in about a week, while many others show no development. It’s too early to know any details. I’ll keep you posted.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have updates in the RedZone Weather app today as needed. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great weekend!

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