12:12PM September 10, 2019

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND… An area of low pressure currently situated near the southeastern Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico where it could become a tropical storm this weekend. There is a growing chance that some level of local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida, regardless of if the system develops into a formal tropical storm. We still have plenty of question marks, but models have been pretty consistent over the last day or two suggesting that an area of low pressure or tropical storm will likely make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast in the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Let’s talk details…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… It is far too early to know if hazardous conditions will happen in coastal areas of our region, but I can tell you with growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

LOW PRESSURE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK… The tropical disturbance that will move into the Gulf of Mexico probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm until it moves just south of or over the southern Florida Peninsula and emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions over The Bahamas are currently not favorable for this system to develop, but again, the environment over the Gulf IS slightly more favorable. Heavy rainfall will happen across parts of The Bahamas and south Florida later this week as this system approaches the Gulf.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have updates on this evolving tropical disturbance in the hours and days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great Tuesday evening!

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