6:54AM September 11, 2019

HOT WEDNESDAY; TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… There is a growing chance that a tropical disturbance will move toward our local area on Sunday or Monday. What we don’t know just yet is whether this system will be a tropical storm by the time it makes it to our local area. That is a possibility, but there is also a chance the system remains an area of disturbed weather as it moves in from the southeast. There is a growing consensus that regardless of formal development, heavy rain will be a concern from late Saturday through Monday evening. Before we get there, we’ve got a few hot, dry days ahead. Let’s look at your forecast details…

SUNNY & HOT THROUGH FRIDAY… Plenty of sunshine is expected through Friday. There will be some intermittent periods when we could have cumulus clouds in the sky, especially in the afternoon and evening hours each day. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s. Rain chances remain very low through Friday, although just like yesterday, we may see one localized pop-up storm in the afternoon hours. 0-10% chance of rain is probably the best way to describe this cahnce. Vast majority of us will stay dry.

WEDNESDAY A.M. DISCUSSION – INVEST 95L POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

INVEST 95L: DISTURBANCE BUT NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION YET… NHC continues to suggest that ships in the area of the tropical disturbance (INVEST 95L) are reporting tropical storm force winds in the outer bands of the system. The reason this is not a tropical storm yet is because it lacks a low-level circulation center. There is broad and weak rotation as there is an upper-level low pressure area involved with the disturbance, but to officially become a tropical storm, there has to be a low-level circulation in the atmosphere. Formal development is not expected until Friday or Saturday most likely when the system emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN GULF… Winds high in the atmosphere at the upper-levels will likely become more favorable for the development of a tropical storm as we go into the weekend. We note that the ECMWF/Euro model, the GFS model, and the Canadian model all show the tropical disturbance continuing its current trajectory to the northwest around an area of high pressure off to the east. This makes a northern Gulf Coast landfall likely in the early part of next week. Interests in northwest Florida, south Alabama, south Mississippi, and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. Please check back with me for updates later this week.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games.

ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA… The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Columbia this weekend to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CDT and can be watched on CBS local stations. Kickoff temperatures will be around 91°. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms around. Rain chances are currently pegged at 20-30% in the middle part of the day in Columbia.

AUBURN VS. KENT STATE… The Golden Flashes of Kent State travel to Auburn this Saturday to take on the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff happens at 6PM CDT when temperatures will be in the upper-80s or perhaps near 90°. There is a 20-30% chance of showers across central Alabama during that timeframe. Rain chances should subside as the game continues.

TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISS… Troy will take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles with a 5PM kickoff on Saturday in Troy, Alabama. The Trojans’ game will be streamed online on the ESPN+ streaming service. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening Saturday across south central Alabama. I would encourage fans to have the rain gear handy and be ready for possible lightning delays. That isn’t a certainty, but it is a possibility of something that might happen.

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. MEMPHIS… The Memphis Tigers come to Mobile this weekend to play the South Alabama Jaguars. The game will be televised on ESPNU. Kickoff will be at 2:30PM CDT. There is a 30-40% chance of rain and storms in Mobile at the time of the game. Lightning delays will be possible, although not exactly likely. Kickoff temperatures will be near 90°.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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