HOT & DRY TODAY; TROPICAL SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT LOCAL AREA MONDAY… We continue to monitor INVEST 95L, the tropical disturbance moving northwestward over The Bahamas that has a growing chance of becoming a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 70% chance of this disturbance becoming a tropical storm as it moves northwest across the eastern Gulf toward the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Regardless of if formal development happens, we are expecting a good, soaking rain at times Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. It probably won’t be a continuous rain event for most spots, but this event is slated to provide beneficial rain for our local area. Before we get to Sunday and Monday, we’ll have two dry days (today and Friday) before scattered thunderstorms become more likely on Saturday. Let’s look at your forecast details…
LATEST INFO – INVEST 95L… The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reads, “A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.”
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 95L… The local impacts discussion has not changed since our live video update last evening: There is high confidence that rain chances will be high both Sunday evening and Monday as this tropical disturbance or tropical storm approaches our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida from the southeast. Confidence on all other potential impacts remains low. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. This threat may set up farther to our east over south Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle IF the exact track of this area of low pressure is farther to our east. On the flip side, if the exact track is farther to the west, the core impact zone could be over southeast Mississippi and Louisiana. We just don’t have a firm grip of impacts until we get more insight into the future track of the system.
INVEST 94L REMAINS WEAK AND UNORGANIZED… Cloudiness and showers associated with a weak tropical wave are happening several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles over the central Atlantic Ocean. This system has been branded as INVEST 94L. NHC gives this weak tropical wave only a 10% chance of formal tropical development as it moves northwest in the days ahead. We note that most of the major weather models do NOT develop this system in the next few days.
40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC… Separate from 94L (discussed in previous paragraph), we’re also watching a tropical wave just coming off of the African coastline in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. NHC says this tropical wave has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. Here is their discussion: “A tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles from late this weekend into early next week.”
Our football forecasts have not changed that much. They’ve been lightly edited from previous days to reflect the latest information.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games. We’ll call it a 0-10% chance of rain across our region. Vast majority of us will be dry.
ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA… The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Columbia this weekend to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CDT and can be watched on CBS local stations. Kickoff temperatures will be around 91°. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms around. Rain chances are currently pegged at 20-30% in the middle part of the day in Columbia.
AUBURN VS. KENT STATE… The Golden Flashes of Kent State travel to Auburn this Saturday to take on the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff happens at 6PM CDT when temperatures will be in the upper-80s or perhaps near 90°. There is a 20-30% chance of showers across central Alabama during that timeframe. Rain chances should subside as the game continues.
TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISS… Troy will take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles with a 5PM kickoff on Saturday in Troy, Alabama. The Trojans’ game will be streamed online on the ESPN+ streaming service. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening Saturday across south central Alabama. I would encourage fans to have the rain gear handy and be ready for possible lightning delays. That isn’t a certainty, but it is a possibility of something that might happen.
SOUTH ALABAMA VS. MEMPHIS… The Memphis Tigers come to Mobile this weekend to play the South Alabama Jaguars. The game will be televised on ESPNU. Kickoff will be at 2:30PM CDT. There is a 30-40% chance of rain and storms in Mobile at the time of the game. Lightning delays will be possible, although not exactly likely. Kickoff temperatures will be near 90°.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!