HOT DAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY… The number one question I get when I’m out in public these days is, “When will we get some cooler weather?!” The answer is finally in sight, albeit not for long. A cold front is poised to dive to the south later this week. Don’t mistake “cold front” for thinking this will actually be COLD air moving in – it won’t be. We’ll have overnight lows on Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Saturday morning in the mid- to upper-60s. Highs will drop back to around 90° by Friday. Vast majority will remain dry on this Monday with a few passing cumulus clouds around this afternoon. Before we get to the cool down later this week, we’ve got a few hot days on tap. We’re also monitoring several systems in the tropics that could possibly develop. Let’s talk details…
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY… Temperatures in the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday will be quite hot. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had some locales hit 100 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper-90s each day. Plenty of sunshine is expected through Wednesday.
DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO… September and October are climatologically our driest months of each calendar year. Typically, the major deviation from this is when we have a tropical system around our area. Since we don’t have any tropical trouble locally on the horizon anytime soon, it certainly seems like we will trend drier over the next 2 weeks. This trend is also reflected in the Climatological Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook, showing overall dry and warm conditions that are likely to prevail.
HUMBERTO TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES… We continue to track Humberto in the southwestern Atlantic. A Hurricane Watch may be needed for Bermuda later today, as the forecast track of Humberto comes near or just to the north of the island commonwealth later this week. Direct U.S. impacts from Humberto are not expected at this time.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN GULF TO MOVE INTO TEXAS… The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a weak area of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico. NHC says there is a very low (10%) chance that this system will develop into a formal tropical storm. Regardless of if formal development happens, this will probably end up being a rainmaker for Texas. No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected.
TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC MOVING WESTWARD… NHC says there is an 80% chance that a tropical storm will develop over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles in the next 5 days. From their discussion: “A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.”
HURRICANE SEASON NOWHERE CLOSE TO BEING OVER… We are at the peak of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with the official climatological peak just a few days ago on September 11. While we have been majorly blessed so far with no significant tropical issues locally this year, it’s important to remember we have several more weeks when tropical storms and hurricanes could develop or move into the Gulf of Mexico and potentially threaten our area. Activity usually starts winding down toward the end of October. We all must remain diligent in monitoring the active tropics.
15 YEARS AGO TODAY – HURRICANE IVAN… The “benchmark” hurricane for many people across our area happened 15 years ago with landfall happening just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama on September 16, 2004. Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County as a category 3, major hurricane. Damage and destruction was widespread and extensive across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Inland communities like Brewton, Atmore, and Monroeville were particularly hard hit with thousands of trees being knocked down. Definitely the worst hurricane I’ve ever been through personally, and one that I’ll forever remember – 15 years ago today.
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See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a nice start to your week!