SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY; FEW P.M. STORMS; TRACKING T.S. JERRY… Step outside and enjoy the drier, slightly cooler air that is surging into our region from the northeast! You’ll really start to feel the effect of the drier air later tonight and certainly first thing on Friday morning as overnight lows dip into the mid-60s. It’s not going to be a cool down that lasts for long, but it is a sign of things to come in a few weeks as more “true” cold fronts start approaching our area from the north. We could have a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that move from east to west (not a typo!) along the ‘backdoor cold front’ that is moving by our region today. Storms will be most likely to occur along and west of the Alabama River in parts of west Alabama. We also continue to track Tropical Storm Jerry and other systems in the tropics. Let’s look at details…
ISOLATED P.M. STORMS TODAY… We’ll call it a 20% chance of rain for any given spot across our region. Vast majority of us will stay dry today as cooler, drier air filters in from the northeast. Storms will be loud and proud with the potential for quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected, however. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s this afternoon.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST… TD10 strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry on Wednesday morning. The system is racing northwest at 14-15 miles per hour. This means Jerry will approach the northernmost Leeward Islands on Friday during the daytime hours. Tropical storm or hurricane watches will probably be needed for the northernmost Lesser Antilles, perhaps including the Virgin Islands. Jerry will probably become a hurricane later today or tonight. The good news is Jerry is expected to recurve into the Atlantic Ocean by early next week, likely missing The Bahamas the United States to the east. While it is too early to say that with 100% confidence, model consistency in this idea has been rock solid so far. The trends are GOOD for now. We’ll keep watching.
HUMBERTO LASHED BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE; NOW ON THE WAY OUT… The core of Hurricane Humberto passed just to the north of Bermuda on Wednesday as a 120mph major hurricane. The large system brought hurricane force winds to Bermuda. Humberto continues to move northeast rapidly at 16-18 miles per hour. A large upper trough is expected to pick Humberto up and fling the system eastward rapidly. Humberto will become extratropical as we go into the weekend. No direct U.S. impacts are expected from Hurricane Humberto.
IMELDA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY IN EAST TEXAS… Tropical Depression Imelda continues to move northward across eastern Texas on this Thursday morning. Flash Flood Watches continue for much of southeast Texas and extreme southwestern parts of Louisiana this morning. The system will continue to produce heavy rain and flash flooding issues for these areas. No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected from this decaying tropical system.
TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re watching two tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that have at least some chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days. The first tropical wave is about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, not far behind Tropical Storm Jerry. The National Hurricane Center says this system has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it reaches the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles in 3-4 days. The other tropical wave is emerging off the African continent today. NHC says this tropical wave has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead.
COOL(ER) NIGHTS AHEAD… Overnight lows through Sunday morning will be in the mid-60s. Sunday morning looks to be the coolest morning in the next 7 days with temperatures reaching the 62-65° range in many spots, especially across inland areas of south Alabama.
PERFECT WEATHER FOR HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL… Picture perfect weather is what is in store for south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday as we get set for another round of high school football. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low-80s at 7PM. Most locales will fall into the mid- to upper-70s by the end of each game. The chance of rain for any given spot is near zero.
SUNNY WEEKEND AHEAD… High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern for Saturday and Sunday, meaning we should have quite a bit of sunshine each day. There may be some passing cumulus clouds in the afternoon and evening hours, but most of the region will be sunny and warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s each day.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t insanely active locally. See details below.
ALABAMA VS. SOUTHERN MISS… The Southern Miss Golden Eagles travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The game is set for an 11AM kickoff on ESPN2. Partly cloudy skies are expected in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with very little to no chance of rain. Kickoff temperatures will be around 82° rising to around 88° by the end of the game.
AUBURN VS. TEXAS A&M… The Aggies of Texas A&M will host the Auburn Tigers this weekend in College Station, Texas. The game will be televised on CBS local stations and is set for a 2:30PM kickoff. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours in College Station. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas this week, but I expect areas near College Station to be mostly dry by Saturday. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
TROY AT AKRON… The Akron Zips will host Troy this weekend as the Trojans travel all the way to Akron, Ohio for a 2PM game on Saturday. There is only a 10-20% chance of showers and storms in Akron during the game which is set to be broadcast on the ESPN+ streaming platform. Game time temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
SOUTH ALABAMA AT UAB… There is a big intrastate football game scheduled for 2:30PM at Legion Field in Birmingham on Saturday as the South Alabama Jaguars take on UAB. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s Saturday afternoon and evening in Birmingham. No rain is expected.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!