WARM SUNDAY; ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING… Clouds continue to clear out and temperatures continue to rise on this Sunday afternoon. Our focus is on the active weather set to happen across our area on Monday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The entirety of Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk on Monday. This means that while a strong or severe storm or two may happen, widespread severe weather is not expected. The tornado risk across Alabama and northwest Florida remains LOW, but not entirely zero. The main concern will clearly be damaging wind gusts that could topple a few trees or tree limbs as a squall line passes across our region from west to east on Monday evening. We can’t rule out a brief, spin-up tornado in the squall line as well.
WARM SUNDAY… Most spots are in the upper-70s as of 2PM on this Sunday. I expect afternoon highs to be around 79-83° in most locales. Clouds will continue to clear over the next few hours. I expect cloud coverage to increase on Monday morning ahead of the rain and storms that will move through in the afternoon and evening hours.
LEVEL 1, MARGINAL RISK FOR ALL OF ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… The afternoon update from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has changed the convective outlook somewhat. We note that the entirety of the state of Alabama and all of northwest Florida are now included in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The slightly higher risk zone is in place to our west across parts of Mississippi. Again, if you are in Alabama or northwest Florida (ALL locations!), you’re involved in the low-end, marginal risk zone on Monday.
LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR WEST… SPC has included much of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their standard, Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. This is where the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” will be in place on Monday. We note that Jackson (MS), Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), and Monroe (LA) are included in this Level 2 risk zone.
STORM MODES MONDAY… The main risk locally will probably come from an advancing QLCS/squall line that approaches from the west on Monday afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail will be the main concerns with this advancing line of storms.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING MONDAY… This has changed a bit since my update posted this morning. This is valid for south Alabama and northwest Florida: The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM Monday to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM.
CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY… Skies will clear on Tuesday afternoon after the passage of the cold front that prompts all of the rain and storms on Monday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid-70s! Overnight lows by Wednesday morning will be in the upper-40s across inland locales and low-50s closer to the coast.
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ON FRIDAY… After Monday, our next round of active weather is set to happen on Friday as yet another cold front approaches from the northwest. There could be a few stronger storms involved, but it’s too early to know specifics. Be sure to check back with me throughout the week for the very latest.
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See all the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!