12:50PM February 9, 2020

Severe Storms Possible Wednesday (February 12-13, 2020)

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has added an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for this Wednesday, February 12 into early Thursday. It may feel like déjà vu considering we JUST had severe storms last Wednesday into Thursday, but this is very real. The tornado risk with this system will probably a bit higher, as SPC is already highlighting the risk of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

SEVERE WEATHER FATIGUE IS REAL… I understand that people get tired of hearing about risk levels and upcoming severe weather. “Forecast fatigue” is definitely something I consider when disseminating information. You have my word that as soon as the active weather pattern is done, we won’t bombard you with alerts and long, detailed posts. However, it is certainly not a common event (a few times per year) to have an enhanced Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place 3-4 days out. We have to stay ahead of these events as lives are on the line. The last two significant severe weather events across Alabama (January 11 and last week, February 5-6) were deadly. People in Pickens County and Marengo County have lost their lives because they were in a tornado and in a manufactured home. This is a major problem across our state and across the Deep South and we must do EVERYTHING we can to prevent these totally preventable deaths. Please do not become complacent and think you’re immune to severe weather events. I’m not, you’re not, we all are not. Please be prepared and please help me pass the word along to people that may not be as “weather aware” as you are.

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR NORTH & WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… SPC has taken the uncommon step of introducing a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk 3-4 days out from this severe weather potential. Much of north and west Alabama in addition to much of central Mississippi is included in this risk zone. Locally, northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama are involved in this zone meaning the following communities have the highest severe weather risk for Wednesday into Thursday: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Millry, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, and surrounding areas. This Level 3 risk also includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Decatur, Hamilton, Jasper, Selma, Marion, Greensboro, Livingston, Demopolis, Cullman, Russellville, Haleyville, Oneonta, Hoover, Helena, Alabaster, Homewood, Bessemer, Leeds, Gardendale, Aliceville, Boaz, Fayette, and surrounding areas. This risk also includes Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), McComb (MS), and Starkville (MS).

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY… Other than the areas in northern Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama, the rest of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk where scattered severe storms may happen. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Greenville, Brewton, Atmore, Monroeville, Evergreen, Daphne, Fairhope, Orange Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, and ALL of our local area.

GORGEOUS SUNDAY… Get out and enjoy today’s weather as this will probably be the nicest day until at least Friday! High temperatures are peaking in the low-70s today with an abundance of sunshine in place. We’ll be in the 60s for much of the evening with overnight lows likely to be in the mid-50s by 6AM Monday due to increasing cloud coverage across the region.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY… Rain will be increasingly likely on Monday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. We’ll call it a 30% chance of showers in the morning hours. There could be a few general (likely well under severe limits) thunderstorms involved Monday afternoon, especially across inland counties. While you may hear some thunder and see some lightning in addition to the intermittent rain, any severe storms that happen on Monday will probably occur over central Mississippi into north and west Alabama. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low-70s.

LEVEL 1, LOW-END RISK TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of central Mississippi and parts of north and west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The main concern is gusty winds that could knock down a few trees, small hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. In Alabama, this risk zone includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Centreville, Fayette, Jasper, Hamilton, Russellville, Double Springs, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. Keep in mind, this is a totally different risk than the “main event” severe weather risk coming up on Wednesday into early Thursday.

RAIN & STORMS ON TUESDAY… Rain chances will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. You’ll really feel the warm, unstable air building into our region on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the upper-70s. The air will be humid, thick, and warm. The moisture will be one “severe weather ingredient” that is plentiful with our severe weather setup Wednesday into Thursday.

5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN AHEAD FOR NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA… Flash flooding will be a concern over the next week across the northern half of Alabama as multiple areas of low pressure cause a prolonged heavy rain event. For now, it seems like the core flash flooding risk will happen along and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values. If you missed the map/post last night about this, see it here.

VIDEO LATER THIS EVENING… I’m in the process of fine tuning some of our severe weather details. I will have a special Sunday evening edition of your forecast video posted by 8PM this evening. Until then, let me know if you have any questions and again, please help me pass this along to folks that may not be as “weather aware” as you are. This could be a significant round of active weather Wednesday into Thursday.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, a few days before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Sunday evening!

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