7:12AM February 10, 2020

Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday, February 12, 2020

FEW SHOWERS TODAY; SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Increasingly cloudy skies are expected on this Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida with rain chances progressively increasing throughout the day. While severe weather is not in the forecast today, there is a chance of strong to severe storms setting up for late Wednesday into Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes much of central Alabama in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone with vast majority of our local area being involved in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk. This means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible across our area. Temperatures are slated to be QUITE warm through Wednesday before a cold front moves through on Thursday. High temps will peak near 80° (!!) on Wednesday. Let’s look at your Monday morning forecast details.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY… Showers will progressively increase in coverage across the region today. I expect many showers to be in progress after 6PM tonight. There could be some general thunderstorms (lower than severe limits) involved locally, especially over west Alabama. The overall chance of any strong to severe storms across south Alabama and northwest Florida is very low today. High temperatures will be in the 72-75° range today.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY… SPC maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today for the northwestern quadrant of Alabama. There is a low-end tornado risk and a risk of hail and gusty winds in the stronger storms there today. This includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Demopolis, Greensboro, Jasper, Fayette, Vernon, Hamilton, Double Springs, and Russellville. The greater severe weather risk today will happen over northern Louisiana and central Mississippi where a Level 2 (out of 5) risk in place.

MORE RAIN AT TIMES ON TUESDAY; FEW STORMS POSSIBLE… Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday throughout the day areawide. The overall risk of severe weather on Tuesday remains very low, although there could be some cloud-to-ground lightning in the stronger storms that happen. Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will climb into the upper-70s. The air mass in place across our region starting Tuesday will be warm, moist, and increasingly unstable.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING… The risk of severe weather will begin most likely late in the day on Wednesday. This means that rain and some general thunderstorms may happen Wednesday morning, but the bigger issues likely won’t happen till later in the evening. There is a chance some spots may hit 80 degrees for an afternoon high on Wednesday as the air in place across our region remains warm, unstable, and increasingly supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms will become possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning across much of Alabama and northwest Florida. It appears that the greatest combination of “atmospheric ingredients” for severe weather will come together just to our northwest across parts of west-central Alabama and much of Mississippi. These are the areas where a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk are in place. Our local area is involved in the Level 2, slight risk. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible. 

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY… 3PM Wednesday afternoon to 3AM Thursday morning looks to be the timing when severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. There still are some timing differences indicated by different model scenarios, thus please check back with me tonight and again on Tuesday for updates on the timing of the severe weather potential.

LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.

LEVEL 2 RISK… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… I will have your next detailed video update available by 8:15PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed as more rain and storms move in later today.

Have a great Monday!

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