SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING; STORMS IN WEST ALABAMA NOW… Details continue to come into better focus regarding our potential for strong to severe storms on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The higher risk area will almost certainly happen to our north across parts of west-central Alabama and central Mississippi. There also is an extreme risk of flash flooding in areas just to our north across the northern half of Alabama tonight into early Tuesday. Numerous flash flood warnings have been in place this evening near the Birmingham metro area. Let’s look at your forecast details.
HAPPENING NOW – STRONG STORMS IN MONROE COUNTY… Rain is happening across parts of Clarke, Monroe, Covington, Butler, Conecuh, Wilcox, Washington, and Choctaw counties this evening at the time this update is being produced at 9PM. We had a tornado warning earlier for parts of Washington and Clarke counties in west Alabama. The same storm that prompted those warnings has moved into Monroe County but is now under severe limits. I am not expecting widespread severe weather tonight, but there may be a stronger storm or two west of I-65 over the next few hours. See the video for more details on this.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY MORNING… The latest model guidance continues to suggest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be the time in which severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is the 9 hour window when severe weather will be MOST likely to happen across our region. This has been adjusted slightly since our morning text discussion.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The two most significant concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. Depending on the specific setup, there could be some hail involved as well. While the flash flooding potential locally is much lower compared to communities farther to our north, IF storms train over the same areas, we could have a few isolated areas of flash flooding as well.
LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.
LEVEL 2 RISK… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.
NEXT DETAILED UPDATE TOMORROW MORNING… I will have your next detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday followed by my next video tomorrow evening around 8PM. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed on Tuesday as more rain and storms will be possible throughout the day.
Have a nice Monday evening!