6:50AM February 12, 2020

WARM, MUGGY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS; WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT… Good news to report on this Wednesday morning! The overall severe weather risk for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida continues to decrease. The Storm Prediction Center has stricken the Level 2 risk out of our area and replaced it with a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone for areas west of Interstate 65. This means that we will have some rain, perhaps some thunder and lightning, but any severe storms will be few and far between. The overall tornado risk will be very low, with the main concern being gusty winds. Ahead of the storms overnight, we have an unseasonably warm, humid day on tap for our region. High temperatures will be in the 79-82° (not a typo! Yes, 82 degrees) range this afternoon around 2PM. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WEST OF I-65… Interstate 65 happens to serve as a good reference boundary line for the low-end severe weather risk zone today. If you’re WEST of I-65, you’re involved in the Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk area. This means that an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out tonight, but widespread severe weather probably WON’T happen. Rain? Yes. Lightning? Yes. Tornadoes? Probably not. This includes areas in and near Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Bay Minette, Mobile, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Beatrice, Uriah, and Camden.

NO FORMAL RISK ZONE EAST OF I-65… Communities to the east of Interstate 65 are now NOT involved in a formal severe weather risk zone today or tonight. This means that general thunderstorms will be possible, but widespread hazardous weather is not expected. This includes Pensacola, Orange Beach, Destin, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Luverne, Georgiana, McKenzie, Castleberry, Brewton, Atmore, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Jay, Milton, Pace, Allentown, Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Loxley, Foley, Fairhope, Silverhill, and surrounding areas. You may hear some thunder in these areas, but no major issues are expected. Good news!

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR NORTH… Much of west-central and north Alabama remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for today into the overnight hours. These are the areas that have a slightly higher potential for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms compared to our local area. This Level 2 risk zone includes Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Livingston, Cullman, Centreville, Marion, Demopolis, Butler, Jasper, Fayette, Hamilton, Russellville, Oneonta, Boaz, Fort Payne, Scottsboro, Athens, Moulton, and surrounding areas.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… 9PM tonight to 6AM Thursday will be the nine hour window when severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be over west Alabama, primarily in areas along and west of the Alabama River.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA… Significant flash flooding happened Monday across much of central and north Alabama. Some spots had over a month’s worth of rain fall in less than 12 hours! A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of central and north Alabama, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden due to more rain likely through Thursday. If you’re traveling northbound into these areas, be aware of this potential. It won’t take much rain to cause more flash flooding!

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY… After the storms on Thursday morning, much cooler, drier air is set to move in behind an advancing cold front. Temperatures will actually be deceasing throughout the day on Thursday. Around 5AM, most spots will be near 70, but we will quickly fall into the 50s by mid-afternoon.

NICE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Full sunshine is set to return on Friday as high temperatures drop to near 60 degrees. The sunshine won’t be long-lived, unfortunately, as rain will come back into the forecast late on Saturday into Sunday. The good news is much of the daytime hours on Saturday should remain dry.

MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY… Showers will come back into our forecast on Saturday night ahead of more showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. We’ll call it a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late Saturday evening. Rain chances will increase on Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Sunday will rebound into the upper-60s.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK… Next week looks increasingly unstable and warm. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s on Monday into Tuesday. There could be scattered showers and thunderstorms around each day from Monday through Wednesday. Anytime we have a pattern like that in winter around here, we must keep our eyes open for a developing severe weather potential. For now, severe weather parameters next week remain low. Hopefully we can keep it that way since we have certainly had our fair share of active weather recently!

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed today into tonight as we watch storms roll in from the west.

Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great Wednesday!

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