NICE SUNDAY; RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK… Happy First Day of Meteorological Spring! It is a beautiful Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida, but we have some changes headed our way in the form of rain and storms set to happen this week. Before that, we have a nice, dry, warm Sunday evening on tap. High temperatures are peaking around 70 degrees in most spots this afternoon. We have a mix of sunshine and cumulus clouds happening now with cloud coverage set to increase later this evening. Showers will be possible Monday ahead of a chance of rain and storms on Tuesday. There is a low-end risk of a few stronger storms across west Alabama Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours. I think our greater chance of active weather will happen on Wednesday, however. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains much of southern Mississippi and Louisiana in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Wednesday with a lower-end risk likely to be introduced for our area. This means that an isolated strong or severe storm will be possible Wednesday. Rain finally clears out of our region late Thursday ahead of a drier, nicer pattern setting up for Friday and Saturday. That is your forecast summary, below are all the details.
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING… March 1 marks the first day of meteorological spring! Astronomical spring starts on Thursday, March 19. You may be wondering why there are two different answers to when spring starts. It is because astronomical seasons vary slightly in their length from 89 to 93 days, whereas meteorological seasons start on the first day of the respective calendar month of a season transition month. Basically, meteorological seasons make weather records easier to compare year-to-year. Cheers to spring!
SHOWERS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY; ESPECIALLY INLAND… Rain chances have been increased for Monday, especially across inland areas of south Alabama. Showers will be most likely to happen from 9AM to 5PM, with rain chances slacking off a bit in the evening hours. Temperatures on Monday will rise into the low- to mid-70s by 2PM. Thunderstorms will be confined to areas north of us, most likely. There is no formal risk of severe weather locally on Monday.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER N.W. ALABAMA MONDAY… If you are traveling on Monday, perhaps to areas in northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, Arkansas, or the western half of Tennessee, those areas are involved in a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday into Monday night. In Alabama, that includes places like Muscle Shoals, Florence, Russellville, Hamilton, Moulton, and Ardmore. Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible in those areas.
RAIN AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH STORMS POSSIBLE… More showers and thunderstorms are likely across our area on Tuesday. While vast majority of us will probably have rain and general thunderstorms, SPC has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for west Alabama (details below). I expect showers and storms to be scattered in nature on Tuesday, meaning no areas locally will have rain in place all day. High temperatures on Tuesday will surge into the mid-70s.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Tuesday into Tuesday evening forr the far western part of our local area. Parts of Washington, Choctaw, and Sumter counties in west Alabama are involved in the low-end risk zone. This means that an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. MOST of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have rain at times and maybe some thunder.
HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY… The greatest chance of strong storms locally will come on Wednesday. SPC will likely include all of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk valid for Wednesday when the new outlook is released tomorrow. Rain chances will be high throughout the day on Wednesday and there is some chance that this could be an “all day washout” type event for some locales. We note that the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast includes nearly all of our area in the 2 to 3 inch total rainfall zones, meaning this will be a significant rain event. Some spots across east-central Alabama near Lake Martin, Auburn, and Montgomery may pick up 5 to 6 inches of rain before the end of the week.
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING; DRIER AFTERNOON… Rain will finally clear out of our area to the east on Thursday, most likely in the middle part of the day. This won’t be a significant cool down, but there will be a cold front passing by on Thursday. Highs Thursday will drop into the
upper-60s and near 70. Cloud coverage should begin to diminish Thursday evening.
MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY & SATURDAY… Our next dry streak is set to kick off on Friday when mostly sunny skies return to our region. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid-60s with morning lows in the 40s. It looks like dry weather will prevail Sunday into Monday of the upcoming week.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Enjoy your evening!